A year ago, Thaksin Shinawatra’s astonishing resurgence to power in Thailand seemed complete. One of his daughters had just been elected prime minister. And he was flaunting his influence, giving speeches on his “vision for Thailand.”
Now Mr. Thaksin, 76, is in prison, ordered on Tuesday to serve a year for past convictions of corruption and abuse of power. His daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been dismissed from office, replaced by a rival of Mr. Thaksin’s. And Mr. Thaksin’s political party has been relegated to the opposition.
Despite this series of blows to Mr. Thaksin’s political ambitions, it is probably still too soon to write him off.
For decades, Mr. Thaksin challenged Thailand’s royalist-military establishment for power. He became one of the most polarizing figures in Thailand, was ousted in a coup and went into exile for years.
Then, in a stunning reversal two years ago, his former enemies took Mr. Thaksin back into the fold in an effort to counter Thailand’s youth-led progressive movement. Mr. Thaksin made a dramatic return to Thailand, was sentenced to eight years in prison on charges that he was convicted of in absentia, won a royal pardon and effectively did not spend a day in prison.
To some supporters and analysts, he had made a Faustian bargain that backfired on him in recent weeks, culminating on Tuesday with him entering the Klong Prem Central Prison in Bangkok. A court ruled that he had not properly served his sentence.
But with Thais expected to cast votes in the first half of next year, Mr. Thaksin may still have utility for the royalists, who remain wary of the progressive People’s Party.
“They might need him again,” said Paul Chambers, a Thailand expert at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “They want to keep Thaksin as a trump card up the sleeve.”
Mr. Thaksin was publicly conciliatory after the sentence, a stark contrast from previous legal troubles when he called the cases against him political vendettas. In a statement on Tuesday, he said he would “devote the rest of my life to serving the monarchy, the Thai nation, and the Thai people.”
Mr. Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party remains a force, but its popularity has plummeted in recent months, partly because of the events that led to Ms. Paetongtarn’s dismissal. (She had sounded deeply deferential to the Cambodian strongman Hun Sen in a recorded conversation, causing a nationalist uproar in Thailand.)
Sakda Vicheansil, a member of Parliament for Pheu Thai who defected to Bhumjaithai, a royalist party that is now in power, said Mr. Thaksin’s party has lost touch with its grassroots supporters, who enabled his rise in the first place.
Some allies said Mr. Thaksin has failed to realize that Thailand has moved on — there is now a younger generation that has no attachment to him and his populist policies. Parties like Bhumjaithai are making inroads into his old base while the People’s Party is leading in the polls.
Mr. Thaksin sowed the seeds of his party’s decline, critics said, by focusing on his dynastic ambitions. Between his and Ms. Paetongtarn’s time in the prime minister’s chair, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra was elected prime minister. But she, too, was removed from office.
“The irony is that it was a party with democratic aspirations, but inside it was a family-run party,” said Kantathi Suphamongkhon, who served as a foreign minister under Mr. Thaksin.
Mr. Thaksin also centralized power and relied little on advisers, former allies said, adding that people who challenged him could face a backlash.
In the early 2000s, Mr. Thaksin launched a new wave of politics by offering populist policies such as a universal health care program and low-interest-rate loans for rural communities. He is the only prime minister in Thai history to finish a four-year term, from 2001 to 2004. He was re-elected but ousted in a coup in 2006.
While he was in exile, his political parties kept winning elections, frustrating the royalists. But toward the end of the last decade, a young, progressive movement gained ground. In 2023, the Move Forward Party, the precursor to the People’s Party, won the election.
That is when Mr. Thaksin allied with his old foes. Move Forward’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was blocked from becoming prime minister, and instead Mr. Thaksin’s Pheu Thai formed the government.
Its first prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, was seen as a figure head but ultimately ousted over ethical lapses after about a year in office. Ms. Paetongtarn, a political novice, came next but failed to improve the economy and deliver on other campaign promises. Her disastrous call with Mr. Hun Sen, which he leaked, marked the beginning of the end of her political career. Less than two weeks after her dismissal, Mr. Thaksin was sent to prison.
Mr. Thaksin’s political ups and downs are proof, Mr. Pita, the former Move Forward leader, said, that Thailand is still struggling “to move from old rivalries and elite dealings toward genuine democratic renewal.”
Kittiphum Sringammuang contributed reporting.
Sui-Lee Wee is the Southeast Asia bureau chief for The Times, overseeing coverage of 11 countries in the region.
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