Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister of Thailand and influential power broker, returned to the country on Monday, a day before a court was expected to hand down a verdict that could send him to prison.
Late last week, Mr. Thaksin, 76, abruptly left Thailand and landed in Dubai, spurring speculation that he was once again going to live in exile. Days earlier his family had suffered a political blow — his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra had been dismissed as prime minister — and some analysts wondered if the political dynasty would ever be able to be a force again.
On Tuesday, Mr. Thaksin is expected to attend a court hearing in Bangkok that stems from the end of a previous period of self-exile. It is widely believed that Mr. Thaksin’s dramatic return to Thailand in 2023 was only possible because he made a deal with the royalist forces who ousted him in a coup nearly two decades ago.
When he returned in 2023, Mr. Thaksin was given an eight-year prison sentence on charges of corruption and abuse of power. But he was almost immediately transferred to a hospital after the Corrections Department said his health had deteriorated upon arriving in prison. Mr. Thaksin spent six months in a V.I.P. suite in the hospital. He was released after he received a royal pardon and had his sentence commuted.
For months, Mr. Thaksin’s critics argued that effectively he had avoided prison altogether. When the Supreme Court announced that it would investigate the matter in April, some analysts saw that move as a sign that the royalist establishment was again exerting control over his fate.
Mr. Thaksin’s defense has centered on his argument that he was genuinely ill and that his extended stay at the hospital was in accordance with the protocols of the Corrections Department.
Officials there have said that Mr. Thaksin had chest tightness, hypertension and low blood oxygen levels. And the former acting justice minister has said that Mr. Thaksin was entitled to a special detention room because of his status as a former prime minister, his age and potential security threats.
But in May, the Medical Council announced that it had punished three doctors involved in the hospital stay, giving one a warning for failing to meet professional standards and suspending the licenses of a specialist physician and an orthopedist for providing information that did not correspond with the facts.
Mr. Thaksin’s verdict comes at a time when his political dynasty is on the rocks. On Sunday, a new government in Thailand was formed to replace the one previously led by Ms. Paetongtarn.
She was ousted as prime minister by the Constitutional Court last month. The court found her guilty of ethical lapses after a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s de facto leader, Hun Sen, showed her appearing deferential.
Sui-Lee Wee is the Southeast Asia bureau chief for The Times, overseeing coverage of 11 countries in the region.
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