Spaghetti models—computer models that illustrate potential storm paths using meteorological data—have suggested that a northwest track for Hurricane Kiko passing the Hawaiian islands is likely.
Forecasters are continuing to monitor the progress of the hurricane, currently a Category 2 but expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm in the coming hours.
Why It Matters
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that swells generated by the hurricane are expected to peak along east facing exposures of the islands late Monday through midweek, and could potentially produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.
What To Know
In its latest update on Kiko, the NHC said the Category 2 hurricane was located around 490 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds near 100 miles per hour.
The system is moving northwest near 14 mph, with the agency expecting it to pass north of the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday and Wednesday.
Spaghetti Models at 00z for #KikoDiscussionThe Spaghetti Models are showing Kiko will stay out in open sea and with the Spaghetti Models mostly showing TS to C2 for intensity#wxtwitter #wxX #Tropicalwx #Tropicswx #Tropics #Hurricane #TropicalUpdate #HurricaneKiko #Category2 pic.twitter.com/BjW8UOMIVU
— TrevorTropicsWX (@TrevorTropicsWX) September 8, 2025
The NHC said Kiko is expected to weaken in the coming days, and is forecast to be downgraded to a tropical storm by late Monday.
As of Monday, a hurricane warning—issued by the NWS when “hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area”—was in effect for Hawaiian offshore waters.
A state of emergency was declared across Hawaii on Friday due to the threat of possible extreme weather posed by Kiko, the state’s governor’s office said.
What People Are Saying
The National Weather Service forecast office, Honolulu, Hawaii said in a post on X, Sunday: “Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tue and Wed. While the risk of direct impacts is decreasing, continue to monitor the latest forecast. Swell will build on Mon and will peak along east-facing shores Mon night and Tue, producing life-threatening surf.”
AccuWeather meteorologist Alyssa Glenny told Newsweek on Sunday: “The highest winds from Tuesday to Wednesday may gust to around 40 miles per hour along the northern and northeastern coastlines of the Islands. While this may cause some disruptions for those located along the northern shorelines and nearby mariners, land impacts will be to a lesser extent with the current path compared to a direct track into the Big Island.”
“Likewise, the rainfall totals are expected to range from 1-2 inches across portions of the Hawaiian Islands to a smaller zone of 2-4 inches of rain which can occur along the eastern and northern sides of the Big Island, Maui, and Oahu as Kiko tracks to the north.”
In a September 5 press release, Hawaii Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke said: “To ensure the safety and preparedness of our communities, the state and counties will stand ready to mobilize resources to clear debris, secure infrastructure, and respond quickly to any possible damage caused by the storm.
“We urge residents and visitors to monitor updates, follow official guidance and prepare accordingly.”
What Happens Next
Forecasts are sometimes subject to change, and regular updates are issued by the NHC on its website and social media channels. The agency said that interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue monitoring the storm’s progress.
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