Following a US attack on a suspected “drug-carrying vessel from Venezuela” that killed 11, Caracas has warned the US against using its military for “regime change.” The US has deployed several warships to the Caribbean.
The White House said, without providing evidence, that the people killed in the boat that had departed from Venezuela were “narco-terrorists” and part of the transnational Tren de Aragua group.
What’s more, according to the non-profit think tank InSight Crime, there is little evidence to support the claim that Tren de Aragua, which has developed into one of the most powerful criminal organizations in South America over the past 10 years, is majorly involved in international drug trafficking.
InSight Crime also said in August that, despite claims to the contrary by the Trump administration, the group posed a “limited security threat to the general public” in the US and “the scale of that threat is unlikely to grow.”
After his inauguration on January 20, 2025 US President Donald Trump instructed the State Department to designate Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist organization, alongside several Latin American drug cartels. Cartel de los Soles was later added to the list.
US accuses Venezuela of being a ‘narco-state’
The Cartel de los Soles (or Cartel of the suns), a network that is allegedly run by high-ranking former and active members of the Venezuelan military, was reportedly named after the single suns that certain Venezuelan generals wore on their shoulders as insignia.
It is not clear to what extent this group is involved in drug trafficking and who exactly is part of it, partly because the prosecution of such activities is not a high priority in Venezuela. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who is also the vice-president of the country’s ruling United Socialist Party (PSUV), has long been accused of being one of the leaders of the group himself.
In 2020, during Trump’s first term in office, the US Department of Justice announced charges of narco-terrorism against Cabello and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as well as several other Venezuelan officials.
There has also been speculation as to whether Maduro himself is involved in drug trafficking and if yes, to what extent. Günther Maihold, honorary professor at the Institute for Latin American Studies at Berlin’s Free University (FU), told DW that what was more likely was that politicians allowed criminal gangs to operate. “In return, the cartels share the profits from drug trafficking with them and keep the violence within limits that do not harm the government,” he said.
$50 million bounty on Maduro
Perhaps the US government has more concrete information. It now describes Venezuela as a “narco-state” and recently offered a reward of $50 million (€43 million) for information leading to the arrest of Maduro.
President Maduro reacted to the US strike on the speedboat to rail against the “imperialist polices” of the US and issue another warning to the Trump administration. He told Venezuelan TV channel Noticias Telemundo that he would this week “activate a special plan involving more than 4.5 million militiamen throughout the country: Militiamen who are prepared, activated, and armed.”
Before this, representatives of the Venezuelan government in Caracas had claimed that footage of the strike released on Trump’s Truth Social platform was fake. DW’s fact checking team found no evidence that the video was created with artificial intelligence (AI).
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado welcomed the US strike, describing it as legitimate pressure. She interpreted it as a direct attack on the government, which she said would be overthrown before long.
But Maihold speculated that Trump’s threatening gestures and Machodo’s response were unlikely to destabilize the government in Caracas. “Although a majority of Venezuelans no longer support Maduro,” he said, “a threat to their sovereignty would probably drive many of them to side with the government.”
US deploys warships to the Caribbean
Meanwhile, tensions in the Caribbean are rising: The US has deployed at least eight warships, including a cruiser, two destroyers, a nuclear-powered submarine, and several amphibious assault ships, to the region. The Trump administration has also made clear in various ways that this might only be the beginning.
Furthermore, it has also made clear that its actions are not only aimed at Venezuela: “Please let this serve as notice to anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States of America,” Trump said on Truth Social after announcing the strike.
Juan Gonzalez, who served as former US President Joe Biden’s security advisor for the Western Hemisphere Affairs, told the British Guardian newspaper: “I increasingly fear that the Trump administration may stumble into an intervention scenario in Venezuela, which would be frankly disastrous.”
Maihold also believes that such an intervention would be a bad idea, but he does not think it will happen: “Trump will steer clear of such an adventure,” he predicted.
There are various arguments that speak against a US intervention in Venezuela, not least that one of Trump’s most important campaign promises was that he would stay out of the internal affairs of other countries.
Maihold argued that if there were to be a power vacuum in Venezuela that was similar to those which arose in Iraq and Libya after US intervention it would be the catalyst for another wave of migration northwards, which would run counter to Trump’s interests.
There was also a practical aspect, he said: “What can eight boats achieve in a highly militarized country of this size?” For him, what is clear is that “what we are seeing here is a new phase in the militarization of the ‘war on drugs.’”
US government’s war on drugs
That phrase was coined by President Richard Nixon in 1971, and since then the US has tried in various ways to stop the flow of drugs from the south to the north. This has involved burning coca plants in the Andes, or backing right-wing militias in their fight against left-wing guerillas, which at times supported themselves through drug trafficking, or trying to cut off drug routes.
“But cartels are very inventive when it comes to finding alternative transport routes and means that are less vulnerable to military action,” said Maihold. There are plenty of examples: In the 1970s, Colombian drug barons sometimes flew cocaine directly to Florida in small planes.
Later, they cooperated with Mexican cartels, which brought the drugs into the US through tunnels. In the 1990s, traffickers started using submarines to deliver drugs to California. Venezuelan ports and airports are currently considered safe transit hubs.
Even if the routes via the Caribbean become too dangerous, many believe traffickers will still probably find a way to get drugs into the US.
This article was translated from German.
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