Mayor Eric Adams’ chance of winning the New York City mayoral election has slipped to its lowest point since April with online betting platform Polymarket.
Newsweek reached out to Adams’ campaign via email Friday night for comment.
Why It Matters
The combination of polling and wagering data has amplified debate over whether trailing candidates should exit to consolidate anti-Zohran Mamdani votes. Political scientists and campaign strategists say a narrower field could materially change head-to-head dynamics, but market odds and multiple polls suggest Mamdani leads a fractured field.
Market-based probabilities and public-opinion polls provide different but complementary signals about an election.
Polls show Mamdani with pluralities in multi-candidate matchups, raising strategic pressure on lower-performing candidates to withdraw and consolidate the anti-front-runner vote.
What To Know
According to Polymarket around 9 p.m. ET Friday, Adams’ chances of winning are 1.4 percent. The mayor slipped to 1.1 percent on Friday around 8 a.m., matching his lowest since the end of April, when Polymarket began tracking the race.
Adams’ highest odds were reached in July, with 26.4 percent, the platform shows.
Mamdani’s chances are 83.4 percent, according to the platform. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo‘s odds are at 12.9 percent and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa has 0.9 percent.
In a news conference on Friday, Adams announced his intent to stay in the race for mayor amid reports that the Trump administration was considering offering him a position, according to The New York Times.
“Andrew Cuomo is a snake and a liar, I am in this race, and I am the only one that can beat Mamdani,” Adams said in the news conference.
Recent polling has shown Mamdani as the clear front-runner in the field, but the race gets closer when he’s in a three-way contest with Cuomo and Sliwa.
What People Are Saying
Political analyst Craig Agranoff told Newsweek via text message on Friday that Adams’ “decision to remain in the mayoral race, even as polls and betting markets show him far behind frontrunner Mamdani with odds as low as 1 to 6% on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, speaks to his confidence in name recognition and centrist appeal amid a crowded field.
“Running as an independent after opting out of the Democratic primary, Adams is betting on splitting the anti-Mamdani vote, but recent surveys indicate Mamdani leading with strong support from progressives while Cuomo holds second place.
“This persistence could indeed be a win for Mamdani, as it fragments opposition from moderates and independents, potentially diluting challenges from figures like Cuomo and making a unified anti-progressive front less likely in a ranked-choice system.”
What Happens Next
The general election is set for November 4, and analysts say the mayoral outcome could boil down to decisions by independent or third-party candidates—like Adams and Cuomo—to stay in the race or exit.
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