The federal government will release data Friday morning that experts say is unlikely to allay concerns about a slowdown in the jobs market.
Analysts estimate the U.S. added 75,000 jobs in July, which would be a slight improvement from the 73,000 in June. However, it would put the year-to-date total at 672,000, barring revisions, down from more than 1.1 million during the same period last year.
“The U.S. economy appears to have stagnated” since July, analysts with Citi said in a note this week. They cited a separate survey from the Federal Reserve released Wednesday that showed little to no increase in economic activity or employment over the past several weeks.
The monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is closely watched by economists to provide a snapshot of the economy. This one will be especially scrutinized: It will be the first since President Donald Trump fired the agency’s head, Erika McEntarfer, over accusations of releasing inaccurate data. It’s a charge that mainstream economists have dismissed while raising grave concerns that McEntarfer’s dismissal risks politicizing a nonpartisan statistical agency.
Trump’s choice to replace McEntarfer, E.J. Antoni, has received criticism for misrepresenting data and, before his nomination was announced, called for pausing the monthly jobs report, which economists say would likely disrupt the global economy.
Trump allies have rallied behind the nomination. “E.J. Antoni is one of the sharpest economic minds in the nation — a fearless truth-teller who grasps that sound economics must serve the interests of American families, not globalist elites,” Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, said in a statement. Antoni is chief economist at the Heritage Foundation. He awaits Senate confirmation.
Other signs of a stagnant job-market piled up ahead of Friday’s report. On Tuesday, the BLS reported hiring and firing rates were essentially unchanged in August from the prior month. It also reported job openings fell in July to the lowest in 10 months, though a separate measure tracked by the jobs site Indeed showed new job openings have been rising gradually since mid-July.
The private payroll provider ADP reported Thursday that just 54,000 jobs were added in August, weaker than estimates. Challenger, Grey and Christmas consultancy said layoff announcements last month had surged 39% from July, while employers announced plans to add just 1,494 jobs in August, the lowest total for the month since Challenger began tracking hiring plans in 2009.
Alongside the impact from federal layoffs and spending cuts, more employers are citing economic and market factors — including the effect of Trump’s tariffs — to explain the slowdown in hiring, as well as store closings and bankruptcies, it said.
“September is typically when we begin to see large seasonal hiring announcements, which foretell how retailers expect the holiday season to go. Coming off the lowest August on record for hiring plans, it may be a troubling sign,” Challenger said.
It is also taking longer for people who are unemployed to find work — about two and a half months at the median, a duration not seen since 2017. More workers are also dropping out of the labor force entirely, something that could be the result of Trump’s immigration crackdown, which may be forcing foreign-born workers from their jobs.
Trump administration officials and their allies have suggested the drop-outs are boosting job growth for native-born Americans, but multiple analysts say the data behind those assertions are merely products of statistical quirks. The unemployment rate for native-born Americans stood at 4.7%, in July, the highest level in eight years.
“It seems likely that the Trump administration will use Friday’s jobs report to continue to argue that their immigration policies are creating job market opportunities for U.S.-born workers, but this claim is false and based on a misreading of data from the household survey,” Ben Zipperer, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, wrote in a blog.
“If anything, the job market for U.S.-born workers is worse so far in 2025 than it was in preceding years.”
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