Under President Donald Trump’s administration and its aggressive immigration crackdown, the U.S. population could decline in a historic first, research suggests.
“If current trends hold, 2025 could be the first year on record in which the U.S. population actually shrinks,” journalist and Abundance co-author Derek Thompson wrote in a Substack post.
Trump has vowed during his presidency to deport “millions” of immigrants in what he claims will be the largest mass deportation in American history. That pledge, combined with plummeting birth rates and an aging population, could set the stage for a demographic reversal unseen in the nation’s history, Thompson said, citing analysis from the Pew Research Center and the American Enterprise Institute.
The immigrant population in the U.S., which had grown steadily for more than half a century, fell by over 1 million in the first months of Trump’s second term. A Pew Research Center study published last month found that the number of foreign-born residents peaked at 53.3 million in January, when Trump returned to office, but dropped to 51.9 million by June.
“According to our best estimates, the nation’s population expanded throughout the Civil War, despite the deaths of more than 700,000 Americans,” Thompson wrote.
“It grew throughout the Spanish Flu, both World Wars, and countless bloody entanglements with other countries. Even COVID, which killed more than a million Americans, didn’t reverse the trend. But Trump’s immigration crackdown may accomplish what no war, plague, or calamity has ever done.”
The Daily Beast has reached out to the White House for comment.
Last year, U.S. births outnumbered deaths by about 519,000, according to Census Bureau data. Any decline in net immigration exceeding that figure could tip the country into negative population growth. The Pew Research Center found that the foreign-born population fell by more than 1 million between January and June, the first such drop in decades. The American Enterprise Institute projected that net migration in 2025 could fall to negative 525,000, Thompson noted.
In April, SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he was concerned after the National Center for Health Statistics reported that births in 2023 fell to their lowest level in more than 40 years.
“Low birth rates will end civilization,” the world’s richest man, who is reported to have at least 14 children, wrote on X of the data. He has also invested millions in fertility and population research.
The Trump administration is reportedly exploring how to encourage Americans to have larger families. The New York Times reported in April that proposals under consideration include scholarships for applicants who have kids or are married and a $5,000 “baby bonus” for every new mother.
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