and his administration have repeatedly claimed that cities governed by Democrats experience higher crime rates.
“If you look at the top 25 cities for crime, just about every one of those cities is run by Democrats,” Trump said in a response to a reporterasking whether he would consider deploying the to Republican-led cities also facing high crime.
During his presidency, sent declaring crime in the capital “out of control.” He had previously deployed , a move later ruled illegal by a
The White House echoed this sentiment in a social media post : “Democrat-run cities are plagued with crime because they choose for it to be that way,” the
To assess the validity of these claims, DW’s and teams examined whether there is a link between crime rates and party affiliation.
Data insights: Most large cities Democrat-led
Before analyzing crime statistics, it’s important to understand the political landscape of major cities. In 2024, out of the 100 largest cities in the country: 65 were led by mayors affiliated with the 23 were led by mayors.
According to the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, rural areas tend to lean Republican, while urban populations are more likely to vote Democrat. Larger cities also tend to report higher crime rates than rural areas.
This overlap—Democratic leadership and higher crime—may appear to support Trump’s claim. However, correlation does not imply causation.
City rankings don’t tell the full story, FBI warns
When sorting 2024 FBI crime rates by city and mayors’ party affiliation, a first cursory look showed some Democratic cities with some of the highest violent crime rates in that year. But: the majority of Democrat-run cities have crime rates similar to those run by Republican-affiliated mayors.
The FBI explicitly discouragesusing its data to compile rankings of cities and counties as the agency says they don’t include the numerous variables that are playing a role in crime rates, such as population density and urbanization, economic conditions, population variation down to citizens’ crime reporting practices, among others.
There can also be a huge variation in crime within a city itself,having safe neighborhoods in a city with otherwise high crime rates.
Since the population size can influence the number of crimes committed, it’s worth not only looking at crimes committed in relation to population size (violent crimes per 100K inhabitants), but also at crime rates of cities that are similar in size.
For example: Memphis, Tennessee and El Paso, Texas — both run by Democrat-affiliated mayors — are similar in size, but the violent crime rate of Memphis is about ten times higher than that of El Paso.
Another example: Irvine, California and Virgina Beach, Virginia. Irvine had the lowest violent crime rate among the US largest cities in 2024 and is run by a mayor affiliated with the Democratic Party. Virgina Beach on the other hand has a similar crime rate but is run by a mayor affiliated with the Republican Party.
No, a mayor’s party affiliation doesn’t influence crime
While we looked at the most recent available data from last year that was published in August, researchers from Harvard, MIT and Boston University did a full analysis spanning nearly three decades.
Their study published in January 2025 looked at data from 400 US medium and large cities and found the political affiliation of mayors made little difference when it comes to crime rates and policing.
“Electing a Democrat rather than a Republican as mayor leads to no detectable impact on police staffing or expenditures on criminal justice, nor does it lead to changes in crime or arrest rates,” the study concluded.
“Over the last 30 years, nearly every city in the United States has seen a big decrease in crime, both violent crime and property crime,” Justin de Benedictis-Kessner, associate professor of public policy at Harvard Kennedy School and one of the authors of the study, told The Harvard Gazette.
National violent crime decreased an estimated 4.5% in 2024 compared to 2023 estimates, the latest FBI reportsaid, while murder and non-negligent manslaughter dropped by nearly 15% compared to the previous year.
Looking at the crime rates of one particular year is only a snapshot in time. However, comparing the crime rates of individual cities from one year to another shows a lot of fluctuation rather than a clear trend. This also points towards crime rates not being influenced by a mayor’s party affiliation, given that mayors are in office for several years, depending on the length of the term and whether they are re-elected.
Despite declining crime rates, public perception often suggests the opposite. Pew Research Center
found that many Americans believe crime is rising—even when data shows otherwise.
Year-to-year fluctuations in city crime rates further suggest that mayoral party affiliation is not a reliable predictor of crime trends. Given that mayors typically serve multi-year terms, consistent patterns would be expected if party affiliation were a significant factor.
Between 1993 and 2022, violent crime in the US fell by 49%, including: Robbery: -74%, Aggravated Assault: -39%, and Murder/Non-negligent Manslaughter: -34%
The data and long-term research do not support the claim that Democrat-led cities are inherently more dangerous. Crime rates are influenced by a complex mix of socioeconomic, geographic, and cultural factors—not by a mayor’s political affiliation.
All data and code behind this analysis can be found in this Github Repository.
Edited by: Rachel Baig
The post Fact check: Is the crime rate higher in Democrat-run cities? appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
