Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been able to rely on the United States’ absolute backing throughout his country’s war on Gaza.
While the administration of former US President Joe Biden may have occasionally expressed discomfort over the crises it was enabling in Gaza, the Donald Trump administration has yet to exhibit similar qualms, even going so far in February as to suggest that all of Gaza’s population be ethnically cleansed.
US support has been vital to Israel’s war machine, providing weapons that helped Israel kill more than 63,000 people in Gaza. Diplomatically, it uses its veto on the UN Security Council to block demands for a ceasefire in Gaza, despite the mounting death toll.
It also supported Israel in the International Court of Justice, where Israel is accused of genocide, and sanctioned International Criminal Court members who issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on charges of war crimes.
The US’ potential complicity in what many states and agencies recognise as a genocide has been called out by rights groups, who call on it to halt its support for Israel.
But what if it did? What would happen if the US ended all support for Israel tomorrow?
We asked four experts what they think: Hamze Attar, a defence analyst; Ori Goldberg, an Israeli political scientist; HA Hellyer, senior fellow at the Royal United Service Institute and Center for American Progress; and Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser.
What would happen internationally?
“I get the sense that many of the Western states that originally supported Israel are now feeling particularly helpless and are now really just willing Israel’s downfall upon it. For many, even Germany, the post-war bond that has tied them to Israel has become so frayed it probably won’t hold without the US.
“My guess is [if US support for Israel ended tomorrow] they’d all move against Israel immediately, though no one would really want to be the first.
“I don’t know what shape that would take, whether it would be sanctions, or even the enactment of Chapter 7 [of the UN Charter, authorising immediate intervention], but it would be quick.” – Ori Goldberg
What would happen regionally? Would Israel be attacked, as it claims?
“I think if you suddenly removed the US from the equation, you’d be removing the one largest single [impediment] to some kind of settlement there’s been.
“Israel’s imperative for genuinely integrating itself into the region will always be a second- or third-level priority, because American support underwrites its ability to act with impunity, as we’ve seen vis-a-vis the Palestinians, the Lebanese, and the Syrians and so on.
“This idea that Israel is one step away from being attacked just isn’t the case and, many would argue, hasn’t been the case for decades.
“The Syrian army isn’t currently holding off from counter-attacking Israel because of the US. They’re holding off from attacking because they’re not interested in more wars, they know they’d face massive resistance; the same is true for others.” – HA Hellyer
What would happen financially?
“Israel is very dependent on the US financially, but it wouldn’t collapse entirely.
“Increasingly, Israel has been dependent on the high-tech weapons sector, a lot of which the US supports, in terms of aid as well as almost limitless R&D opportunities.
“But Israel also relies economically on just having the US in its corner, like a coach waiting with the towel [loan guarantees and other support mechanisms].
“I think the overnight loss of US support would make things difficult, but it wouldn’t be immediate, until we got to see massive layoffs in the Big Tech companies, and the military begin to falter.” – Ori Goldberg
What would happen in Israeli politics?
“Not as much as you think. Israel’s settler community is already high on its own stash. They’re going to continue with what they see as their God-given mission, whatever happens.
“Netanyahu would probably continue, too. He’s not a magician. Much of what he says and does is just reflective of what much of Israeli society thinks anyway.
“Sure, he’d reframe it. He could say that the reason we attacked Gaza was so that we’d never have to be dependent on another state again, but I think he’d probably survive.” – Ori Goldberg
“America really has been the gift that keeps on giving, especially to the Israeli right. If a Democrat is in power, they can say: ‘Look how well we’re managing them.’
“And if someone like Trump is in power, they can say: ‘Look, we must be doing something right: The US agrees with us.’ Either way, they gain legitimacy. Without the US, that’s not really there.
“In terms of its internal politics and its treatment of Palestinians, the US also gives Israel absolute impunity. For instance, its politicians can wage a genocidal war on Gaza or cheer on settlements with no apparent cost.
“In any other society, that cost would come from other states, or their own society’s moral compass. We don’t seem to have either of those here.” – Daniel Levy
What would happen to its military?
“If the US vanished tomorrow, Israel could probably sustain its war on Gaza for around a year, but its priorities would change as it became significantly more vulnerable.
“For instance, they’d be very aware that every bullet or bomb they used in Gaza was one less for their own defence.
“Without the US, the blocking of the commercial satellites that Israel relies upon to obscure its territory would end. This would allow its adversaries to see into its territory immediately. It would also lose the defence systems, such as Iron Dome and Arrow systems, which are partly funded by the US, leaving it much more open to attack.
“The loss of the US would also mean that Israel has to go looking for other military suppliers, most probably from NATO countries in Europe, because much of the equipment is compatible. However, with Europe already having a weapons shortfall in relation to what it sees as the threat from Russia, that’s not going to happen quickly.
“Europe is also going to charge Israel for any weapons, which – under the current military aid programme – the US doesn’t, so even if another country did step up, Israel isn’t going to be able to afford to purchase weapons on anything like the scale it has.” – Hamze Attar
What would happen in Gaza and the occupied West Bank?
“I think once the senior echelons of the army got wind of what was happening, they’d be calling for the war to end immediately.” – Ori Goldberg
“I think the central bank and the army would realise almost immediately that they didn’t have the weapons or the money to continue the war.
“After that, depending on what other states do, both regionally and in the West, the war would become politically and economically unsustainable.” – Daniel Levy
“My guess is they’d adopt a holding pattern in Gaza and the West Bank, buying themselves time. Israel’s reputation in terms of international public opinion is already rock bottom, but US support has shielded it from actual international accountability.
“Essentially, without the US, Israel would be treated like an international pariah state, like apartheid South Africa had been. The apartheid leadership also eventually decided it had to change, not because they were particularly nice people, but because they reached a point where they had no choice, and decided to salvage what they could.” – HA Hellyer
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