Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president charged with trying to cling to power after losing the country’s last election, is poised to stand trial starting Tuesday.
Prosecutors argue Mr. Bolsonaro, 70, oversaw a vast plot to overturn the 2022 election that sought to sow unfounded doubts about the results; hand the military special powers; dismantle courts; and even poison his rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who narrowly beat him at the polls.
For many in Brazil, which emerged from a brutal military dictatorship just four decades ago, a successful prosecution of Mr. Bolsonaro would represent a victory for democracy.
But the way Brazil is attempting to reach that victory — through an extraordinarily empowered Supreme Court — has also left the country grappling with uncomfortable questions over the very democracy it sought to protect.
And to Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters, the charges against him amount to political persecution, aimed at thwarting his political comeback in next year’s presidential election. Mr. Bolsonaro says that he explored only legal means to remain in office after losing an election he claims was stolen from him. (There is no evidence of fraud.)
Mr. Bolsonaro’s case has also triggered a diplomatic crisis between the Western Hemisphere’s two largest nations, as President Trump has used tariffs and sanctions to try to force Brazil’s judiciary to drop the charges against its former leader, who is also a political ally of Mr. Trump.
Prosecutors and Bolsonaro each point to the evidence to tell different stories.
Mr. Bolsonaro and seven members of his inner circle, including his running mate and a former spy chief, will be tried on charges of “violent abolition of the democratic rule of law” and “coup d’état,” among other crimes.
The trial before Brazil’s Supreme Court, expected to last two weeks, will weigh evidence collected by investigators over nearly two years. This includes key testimony from Mr. Bolsonaro’s personal secretary, who confessed as part of a plea deal.
His confession led investigators to other evidence, including text messages, voice notes and documents found in the homes and offices and on the cellphones of Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies.
In an especially sinister part of the plot, Mr. Bolsonaro’s close aides stand accused of drafting a plan to assassinate Mr. Lula before his swearing in. Investigators say the evidence shows Mr. Bolsonaro approved the plan.
Mr. Bolsonaro has denied that he plotted to kill Mr. Lula and says that he never planned to stage a coup, but instead “studied ways within the Constitution” to remain in power.
Brazil is on edge as the trial kicks off.
Faced with a trove of evidence, Mr. Bolsonaro is likely to be convicted by a majority of the five-justice panel. He could face up to 43 years in prison, or may be ordered to serve his sentence under house arrest because of his poor health and what Brazilian law considers to be his advanced age.
The country is bracing for unrest during the trial.
Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have planned mass demonstrations across the country on Sept. 7, Brazil’s independence day. In Brasília, the capital, barricades circle the Supreme Court building, and additional police forces stand guard outside other government buildings. In January 2023, a week after Mr. Lula was sworn in, Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed those same buildings in a destructive riot that echoed the attack on the U.S. Capitol two years before.
Mr. Bolsonaro has spent the last few weeks before the trial under house arrest. Justice Alexandre de Moraes who is overseeing the case, had already ordered the defendant to wear an ankle monitor and stay away from foreign embassies. He recently tightened security measures, deeming Mr. Bolsonaro a flight risk.
Mr. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo has been living in the United States since March and has been aggressively lobbying the White House to intervene in his father’s case.
The diplomatic crisis could deepen.
For months, Mr. Bolsonaro’s trial was a domestic matter. Then in July, Mr. Trump suddenly threatened Brazil with 50 percent tariffs if it didn’t end the “witch hunt” against Mr. Bolsonaro.
He followed through, and applied harsh sanctions against Justice Moraes. A conviction of Mr. Bolsonaro could further strain relations between Brazil and the United States — and some Brazilian officials and analysts worry it could trigger more U.S. tariffs or sanctions.
Mr. Bolsonaro has argued that amnesty for him and his supporters is the key to an economic truce with the United States. His allies in Brazil’s Congress are pushing a bill to pardon rioters involved in the storming of the capital. If passed, some analysts say it could also benefit Mr. Bolsonaro.
But Mr. Lula could veto such legislation and, even without that, its application in Mr. Bolsonaro’s case would likely be challenged in the Supreme Court.
There is also the question of Mr. Bolsonaro’s eligibility to hold office. He was deemed ineligible until 2030 in a separate case, in which electoral authorities decided that he had abused his power and had cast unfounded doubts about the country’s voting systems. Under Brazilian law, a criminal conviction would permanently bar him from office.
Ana Ionova is a contributor to The Times based in Rio de Janeiro, covering Brazil and neighboring countries.
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