HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (WHNT) — With September beginning, it means meteorological fall has officially begun! For record-keeping purposes, meteorological fall includes the months of September, October, and November.
Here in the Tennessee Valley, we were able to catch a glimpse of fall towards the end of August as cooler air began to filter into the region.
During a normal fall season, the average temperature across the area can range from at least 61 degrees to nearly 64 degrees. The average temperature combines the high and low temperatures. The average temperature in Huntsville is 63.8 degrees, and in Muscle Shoals, 63.6 degrees.
When it comes to rainfall across the area, totals can range from nearly 10.50 to nearly 13 inches. During the fall season, Huntsville normally records 11.30 inches of rain compared to Fayetteville, which can see almost 13 inches of rain.
When looking back at the past ten years, the majority have been warm and dry. 2016 was the warmest on record, with 2024 being the third warmest. 2023 was the second driest on record, with a little more than 3.60 inches of rain.
The fall season is typically the second severe weather season for the Tennessee Valley, and in three of the years, it was active. Tornado warnings were issued at some point during the meteorological fall season of 2016, 2017, and 2018.
2016 specifically was a very active season with 11 tornadoes. A destructive EF3 tornado tracked through Jackson County, injuring 10 people and killing three.
Preview To The Fall Season:
As we head into fall, the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted the Southeast under the leaning above-average category. This doesn’t mean every day will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures, but there are signs in model trends that would support a mild fall.
When it comes to rainfall, the Tennessee Valley is split down the middle. Northwest Alabama has a chance of seeing below-average rainfall compared to the rest of the area. Areas along and east of I-65 will have an equal chance for either a wetter or drier fall.
This data accounts for the possibility of a La Niña climate pattern developing briefly into the start of fall, with ENSO-neutral developing thereafter into winter. Looking back, there has been great variability in our weather during La Niña falls and winters. There have been two out of the last 10 years where there’s been an ENSO-neutral phase, and each of these two years recorded warmer and drier conditions than normal in the Tennessee Valley.
No matter what the fall weather brings to the area, you can count on The Weather Authority to keep you updated!
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