Over the past year, Israel has doggedly insisted that negotiations for a Gaza cease-fire be focused solely on a phased deal that would begin with a temporary truce and see some hostages released in exchange for some Palestinian prisoners, while deferring agreement on a more permanent pact.
And yet, even as Hamas recently said that it would agree to a phased deal, the Israeli government has switched gears, saying it wanted only a comprehensive deal that would free all the hostages and end the war. It is as unclear as ever how, or when, that might happen.
Israel’s military is also poised this week to call up tens of thousands of reserve soldiers for its advance into the heart of Gaza City.
Both those steps, experts say, would most likely prolong the war, not shorten it.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has vowed to keep fighting until Israel has decisively defeated Hamas, the militant group that has ruled Gaza for nearly two decades, by stripping it of its military and governing capabilities and forcing it to disarm.
Hamas has so far refused to surrender and largely rejects Israel’s terms for ending the war. Experts are skeptical that Israel could now achieve what it has not managed to achieve in the 22 months since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 — whether militarily or by negotiation.
“Netanyahu has defined success as something that is unachievable,” said Thomas R. Nides, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, describing the elimination of Hamas as an impossible goal. Success, he said, should be defined as what has already been achieved: “that Oct. 7 won’t happen again.”
Mr. Nides and other experts say that only President Trump has the power to pressure Mr. Netanyahu to end the war. But for now, the Trump administration appears to be backing Mr. Netanyahu’s war plan and appears to have also reversed course on the negotiations.
About a month ago, Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration’s special envoy to the Middle East, said in a meeting with the families of hostages that Mr. Trump wanted to see all the living hostages released at once. Israel says that about 20 are still alive.
“No piecemeal deals, that doesn’t work,” Mr. Witkoff said, according to an audio recording of part of the meeting published by the Ynet Hebrew news site. He said there was a plan around shifting the negotiation toward an “all or nothing” deal.
He did not offer details and there have been no obvious signs of progress since.
Isabel Kershner, a Times correspondent in Jerusalem, has been reporting on Israeli and Palestinian affairs since 1990.
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