Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s political rise was as rapid as her downfall.
Two years ago, she was a political novice running in her first election. Last August, she rose to become prime minister of Thailand. On Friday, a powerful court dismissed her from office for ethical breaches.
Ms. Paetongtarn’s political fortunes have always been tied to her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister who was ousted in a coup. Her appointment as prime minister appeared to be a stunning comeback for Mr. Thaksin. But that was possible, analysts say, only because Mr. Thaksin made a grand bargain with an old nemesis, Thailand’s royalist-military establishment.
Ms. Paetongtarn was widely seen as a puppet of her father’s. Once she was in office, Mr. Thaksin started talking publicly about domestic issues like how to deal with President Trump’s tariffs and regional issues like the civil war in Myanmar. Eventually he ran afoul of the old guard.
“He seems to have interpreted their deal to mean that ‘I get to be shadow head of government,’” said Michael J. Montesano, an expert on Thai politics at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
It ended with a body blow to the Shinawatra dynasty. Ms. Paetongtarn was the fifth prime minister linked to Mr. Thaksin to be removed by the Constitutional Court.
It was the latest instance, analysts said, of the old guard’s using the judiciary to neuter opponents. And it was further evidence, they said, that even though Thailand is a constitutional monarchy that regularly holds elections, it is beholden to an unelected royalist-military establishment.
“It’s very clear now that Thailand’s political system is in the hands of the few,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
Now Mr. Thaksin’s political future is uncertain, but he was once the biggest challenger of the status quo. A police official turned telecom billionaire, he ran for office on a populist platform.
When he was premier, from 2001 to 2006, he won over the public with a $1-per-person health care program and a loan program for farmers. Thailand enjoyed years of economic growth, fueled by his policies. But the overwhelming support for him was a threat to the royalists and the military, and he was pushed out in a coup after winning a second term.
“Mr. Thaksin remains the only elected prime minister who managed to finish a four-year term in our political history,” said Verapat Pariyawong, who teaches Thai law and politics at SOAS University of London.
At the same time, Mr. Thaksin remained dogged by accusations. He lived for years in self-imposed exile, during which he was convicted of corruption and abuse of power. Still, he remained a force in politics — his sister Yingluck Shinawatra was elected prime minister but removed from office before a coup in 2014.
The military ruled Thailand for the next decade. A new challenger, the Future Forward Party, emerged in 2020 but was soon disbanded by a court. Its successor, the Move Forward Party, clinched a surprise victory in the 2023 election. But the conservative establishment saw Move Forward as a threat to the monarchy because the party wanted to soften the nation’s strict royal-defamation law, which has regularly been used to squash dissent.
That gave an opening to Mr. Thaksin, whose Pheu Thai Party had placed second and formed a coalition with Move Forward. Pheu Thai abandoned the alliance and moved to form a government with new, conservative partners. Mr. Thaksin returned in 2023 to Thailand, where he was ordered to serve eight years in prison, but he received a royal pardon and his sentence was commuted.
The next year, Parliament elected Ms. Paetongtarn as Thailand’s youngest premier. But her political inexperience — she was a former executive of a family-run hotel management company and had no experience with elected office — quickly became a vulnerability.
Less than a week after Ms. Paetongtarn took office, Mr. Thaksin shared his “vision for Thailand” to a group of more than 1,000 business elites. But his party lacked a majority in Parliament and could not deliver on campaign promises like a handout of about $300 to most Thais.
The Shinawatras are also facing legal hurdles. While Mr. Thaksin was acquitted last week in royal-defamation case, he still faces the prospect of jail in a case related to his return to Thailand.
Ms. Paetongtarn’s own legal challenge began with a call in June with Cambodia’s strongman leader, Hun Sen. The two were trying to tamp down tensions after a decades-old border dispute flared up. Unbeknown to her, Mr. Hun Sen recorded the conversation.
The next day, Ms. Paetongtarn disparaged the “constant unprofessional communication” from Cambodia. Mr. Hun Sen responded by posting the recording on Facebook.
Once public, their exchange raised questions about Ms. Paetongtarn’s competence and loyalty, and a group of lawmakers filed a complaint accusing her of “demonstrable honesty and integrity.” She was suspended last month as the Constitution Court deliberated on dismissing her.
On Friday, the court ruled 6-3 that she had violated ethics rules.
“In this country, you can overthrow an elected government with six men,” said Mr. Thitinan of Chulalongkorn University.
Sui-Lee Wee is the Southeast Asia bureau chief for The Times, overseeing coverage of 11 countries in the region.
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