Carlos Barria/REUTERS
Artificial intelligence and AI agents are redrawing the competitive landscape of software and SaaS, and there will be winners and losers.
That’s the conclusion of a new RBC Capital Markets report that warns incumbency alone is no guarantee of survival in the post-AI era. Innovation, not market share, will determine who crosses the AI “chasm.”
“Incumbency is not enough for software companies to thrive in a post-AI world — innovation is paramount,” RBC analysts wrote in the report. “If incumbency were the most important factor, Sears, Blockbuster, and Barnes and Noble would have been major beneficiaries of the Internet, but instead new companies came in their place.”
The analysts scoured the software sector for companies that have the right positioning and right innovation roadmap around AI. They also identified other companies where “we’re more uncertain.”
The Winners
Microsoft topped RBC’s bullish list. Wall Street still underestimates the software giant’s AI push, which now touches every corner of its business, from Azure to Office, Teams, Dynamics, and LinkedIn. Its partnership with OpenAI, alongside a diversified in-house strategy, could accelerate growth over time.
Intuit was another standout. Long before ChatGPT, the tax and accounting software firm was investing in AI. RBC highlighted new AI agents in QuickBooks and TurboTax as evidence that Intuit is positioned to capture more market share in industries ripe for automation.
HubSpot also earned praise. The CRM challenger has rolled out ChatSpot, Breeze, and Breeze Intelligence, all tightly integrated with generative AI. With a culture of innovation and a unified tech stack, HubSpot could steadily gain share against larger rivals.
On the infrastructure side, MongoDB was singled out as a key building block for AI applications, particularly those dealing with unstructured data. RBC noted several AI-native startups already rely on it.
Pegasystems, meanwhile, is well-placed to benefit from AI agents that increase complexity in enterprise systems. Its Blueprint workflow builder, which lets companies modernize processes using natural language, could expand its market significantly.
The Losers
Not every incumbent is keeping pace, according to RBC. Salesforce’s much-hyped Agentforce remains mostly in pilot projects, with limited signs of advanced AI functionality. RBC warned that the product delivers more automation than true “agentic AI,” raising doubts about its long-term competitiveness.
ZoomInfo faces perhaps the most existential threat, the RBC analysts wrote. Its core product, selling contact information, risks being commoditized by large language models. RBC likens its AI pivot to the Yellow Pages’ attempt to fend off Google, casting doubt on its staying power.
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