This article is also available in: French.
PARIS — Europe’s disunited governments are in denial about the extent to which violence is shaping global politics and must step up to assert their combined force as a hard power, the chief of defense staff of the French military has warned in a sweeping interview.
“A weakened Europe may find itself tomorrow as a hunted animal, after two centuries of the West setting the tone,” General Thierry Burkhard said in unusually outspoken remarks to POLITICO and French newspaper Libération. “It’s not only about armed forces, but about the fact that hard power dynamics now prevail.”
Burkhard warned that Europe’s fragmented countries would have to bind together more tightly as a strategic force to counteract the “spheres of influence” being built by China, Russia and the U.S.
“On the one hand, European countries have never been so strong. On the other, there is a form of denial from governments and populations in the face of the level of violence in the world today,” he added.
The French general’s reality check echoes a growing number of warnings about Europe’s weakness.
Former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi also stressed last week the EU had to stop pretending it could exercise global influence just as an economic force and consumer market. He insisted the bloc had received a “very brutal wake-up call” from Donald Trump that it needed to think in far more strategic terms about security and defense spending.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Wednesday accused the European Union of sliding into irrelevance on the world stage. “We must be willing to pay the price of our freedom and our independence,” she said.
Burkhard, who leaves his job at the end of the month to be replaced by Air Force General Fabien Mandon, has been at the helm of France’s military since 2021.
Under his watch, France’s armed forces boosted their presence on Europe’s eastern flank and became more active in NATO while preparing for high-intensity warfare. In the past months, the French general also co-chaired the coalition of the willing, a group of countries working on security guarantees for Ukraine in case of a ceasefire with Russia.
Burkhard described a world defined by four political factors: The use of force to resolve conflicts; a push by countries including China, Russia, North Korea and Iran to challenge the West; the power of information warfare; and the impact of climate change.
“More than Russian tanks, the establishment of a de-Westernized alternative order threatens Europeans. If Russia can break Europe without an armed attack, that is the path it will choose,” France’s highest-ranking military officer said, speaking in his office at the armed forces ministry’s Paris headquarters, known as Balard.
“In tomorrow’s world, the strategic solidarity uniting European countries must be very, very strong. No country in Europe can be a major player alone,” Burkhard added. “It’s not about building something against the United States or even against Russia, but rather about achieving the critical mass needed to have influence and avoid being sold off by the slice.”
The challenge for Europeans has always been to speak with one voice, especially when it comes to defense policy. Madrid’s push to be exempt from NATO’s new 5 percent of GDP defense spending target, following comments by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez that Russia doesn’t pose an immediate threat to Spain, highlights how differently European nations perceive threats.
“The difficulty with European defense is to encompass the strategic interests of European countries as a whole,” Burkhard said. “Estonians do not have the same strategic vision as the Portuguese; no one can deny that. A middle ground must be found.”
‘Momentum’ for Ukraine security guarantees
Those strategic interests include preserving Ukrainian independence, and there is growing pressure on European countries to step up.
Despite many unanswered questions, discussions around security guarantees for Kyiv picked up steam in the past weeks, following Trump’s Aug. 15 Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“The U.S. president’s very strong desire to reach a peace agreement is bringing new momentum,” Burkhard said, speaking one day after flying back from Washington for military talks.
After a White House gathering with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz and Meloni, among others, the Trump administration even signaled openness to contribute to security guarantees. That could reportedly include intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, as well as command and control and air support.
For most European capitals, U.S. military backing is a precondition to engage in any effort to monitor a potential peace agreement in Ukraine.
“The Americans mainly believe that the Europeans must demonstrate their commitment to taking responsibility,” Burkhard stressed. “It’s a chicken or egg dilemma: Some countries are only prepared to commit if there are American guarantees. But it’s not really a military debate, it’s a political one.”
While the “best security guarantees would be to demonstrate American determination in the event of a peace agreement violation,” military operations could include troops in Ukraine, air patrols over the country, ensuring that shipping traffic resumes in the Black Sea, and helping to build the Ukrainian army, the French general explained.
“To restore the Ukrainians’ confidence, we need to send the signal that European countries, possibly supported in some way by the United States, are ready to provide guarantees,” the French general said. “Providing guarantees often means taking risks.”
The danger is that any military contingent becomes involved in the war — especially as the Kremlin repeatedly said it doesn’t want European troops in Ukraine. That’s why the rules of engagement — meaning what militaries in Ukraine would do in case of a Russian attack — remain a key question.
“If you are going to uphold a peace agreement, the rules of engagement are self-defense. That’s quite logical,” Burkhard said.
‘Chosen’ vs ‘imposed’ wars
The high intensity conflict in Ukraine is triggering a deep rethink of how Western armed forces operate, according to Burkhard.
“We have moved from chosen wars — in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Mali — to imposed wars,” the French general said.
In what he calls “chosen wars,” political and military leaders retain control over how much ammunition is fired, how long troops remain and how many personnel are deployed. Imposed wars are existential conflicts with no such choices. “If the Ukrainians don’t fight 100 percent [against Russia], they will disappear. That’s what imposed wars mean,” he added.
To face the new reality, Burkhard argued, Western armed forces have to diversify their arsenals. “The question of ‘what kills what and at what cost’ is central. If we only develop high-tech weapons that kill but are actually very, very expensive, we will probably not succeed,” he said, adding that armed forces also need low-cost weapons of attrition.
The French general pushed back against the argument that the French armed forces could only last a few days in a high intensity conflict because munitions stocks are too low. France would not fight Russia on its own but alongside NATO allies, he emphasized.
“Our ammunition stocks are not as high as they should be because we have focused more on chosen wars,” Burkhard added. “Does it mean the French armed forces are not able to engage in operations? No. They can do so tonight if necessary.”
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