What analysts are watching ahead of Nvidia’s earnings

Good morning. Your English teacher and your gym teacher are getting married, so I’m told. Yes, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announced their engagement yesterday with a carousel of photos.

Both were clad in Ralph Lauren. You can see the NFL star pictured down on one knee and the pop singer’s diamond engagement ring (it’s pretty hard to miss). Paired with her Cartier watch, Swift may be embarking on her most dazzling era yet.

In today’s newsletter, it’s a big moment for the stock market, too. Nvidia reports earnings after the bell, and we’re breaking down what Wall Street expects.

What’s on deck:

Markets: Concerned about President Trump’s new beef with the Fed? Watch these three market signals.

Tech: What if lawyers could read a judge’s mind? This AI startup thinks it can get close.

Business: Cracker Barrel is changing its logo back after a week of criticism.

But first, all eyes are on Nvidia.

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The big story

Nvidia earnings

Today isn’t just about Nvidia. With a market cap north of $4 trillion, the company accounts for around 8% of the S&P 500. It is the pulse of the AI trade; its technology can be found inside companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. If it falters, so does everything else.

Even if you only hold a broad-market ETF, indexes tend to be tethered to Nvidia.

After the closing bell, the company reports earnings. Then, the market passes judgment. Investors will be watching for updates on Blackwell chip production, the company’s powerful new processors built to drive the next era of AI training.

They’ll also want to see signs that AI capex spending is still coming thick and fast. That’ll likely signal more data centers — and let’s hope they don’t set up shop in your backyard.

Business Insider spoke to analysts across Wall Street to break down what you should watch for.

If you’re thinking long term, what really matters for Nvidia lies beyond this quarter’s report.

That’s according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. They see three main factors driving the stock between now and January:

• AI spending guidance from hyperscalers: These are the big spenders pouring billions into AI infrastructure. Nvidia’s stock has already rallied on the back of rising capex forecasts. While analysts want to see further signs of strength today, Goldman is focused on guidance in Q3.
• Commentary around Rubin: This is Nvidia’s next-gen AI chip, said to be even more powerful than Blackwell. The chip isn’t set to ship until 2026, but any signals — like what CEO Jensen Huang recently teased in Taiwan — could shape investor sentiment.

• Clarity around Nvidia’s China business: The back-and-forth over H20 chip sales has added a lot of volatility this year. While shipments have resumed for now, the situation remains fragile. Given that China represents a $50 billion annual revenue opportunity, any updates on that front will matter — a lot.

  The next chapter of the AI era is being written, and Nvidia is supplying the ink. Stay sharp, stay ahead.

3 things in markets

1. A checklist for your market woes. Trump is going after the Federal Reserve again. This time, he wants to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, but she’s pushing back. The good news is the market doesn’t hide its feelings about Trump’s decisions. BI’s Joe Ciolli shared three market signals to help gauge how worried you should be.

2. What to buy when stock valuations are high. AI has made stocks historically expensive, $64 billion investment firm GMO told BI. It recommends international and deep value stocks as alternatives to the inflated US market.

3. Why it’s getting easier to launch a hedge fund. Launches had been declining until separately managed accounts, portfolios investors oversee directly, became commonplace in recent years. In an interview with BI, Goldman Sachs’ global head of capital introduction explained how the increase in avenues to launch has changed the game.

3 things in tech

1. This startup wants to give lawyers an AI crystal ball. Bench IQ uses large language models to forecast how individual judges tend to rule and think, based on each judge’s past rulings, its CEO told BI. So far, it’s raised $5 million from Battery and Inovia.

2. Meta Superintelligence Labs is already losing key staff. At least eight employees, including researchers, engineers, and a senior product leader, have left the company, BI exclusively reports. This comes less than two months after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced the launch of the division.

3. Trump won’t stop at Intel. The US is now the proud owner of a 10% stake in Intel, and Trump officials have signaled they’re open to doing similar deals with other companies. The question isn’t if but who the Trump administration will acquire next, writes BI’s Peter Kafka.

3 things in business

1. Living rent-free in Hawaii. On Hawaii’s “Forbidden Island” of Niihau, locals live rent-free and share a culture largely untouched by the rest of the state’s tourist-centric development. But there’s a catch: Niihauans must abide by strict rules set by the island’s kooky Calvinist landowners. Vices like drinking and drug use can get them expelled from the island forever.

2. Cracker Barrel is changing its logo back. The brand announced that its “new logo is going away,” and the original “old timer” logo will remain. The move follows a week of intense criticism, including from President Trump, who urged the chain to reverse course.

3. MrBeast’s next big stunt: turning a profit. The YouTube star’s company, Beast Industries, is vying to become the next Disney. However, the company wasn’t profitable last year, and a big reason was due to its media business, according to a leaked investor deck from early 2025 viewed by BI. The challenge for CEO Jeffrey Housenbold is cutting costs without sacrificing its signature spectacle.

In other news

• Alphabet’s life sciences unit Verily lays off staff and cuts its devices program. Read the full memo its CEO sent to staff.
• ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ has become Netflix’s ‘Frozen’ — and its biggest movie of all time.
• Andreessen Horowitz and other tech power players launched a $100 million AI-focused PAC.
• A new study finds more bad news for entry-level coders.
• ChatGPT made my Hinge profile cringe-worthy — but it cut down on bad dates.
• I’m the CEO of Olipop. I balance my work days with cold plunges and sauna time, and I DJ on the weekends.
• Trump is trying to fire a Fed governor. Here’s what happened when other countries’ presidents did the same thing.

What’s happening today

• Venice International Film Festival begins.

Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Meghan Morris, bureau chief, in Singapore. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York (on parental leave).

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