Joni Ernst Issued Warning After Democrats Flip Iowa Seat

A Democrat challenging Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican, has sent a message after his party flipped a state Senate seat.

“We are going to flip this U.S. Senate seat the exact same way that Catelin Drey flipped her state Senate seat,” Iowa State Senator Zach Wahls said in a video posted on X on Tuesday.

Newsweek contacted Wahls and Ernst for comment via emails sent outside regular business hours.

Why It Matters

Drey beat Republican Christopher Prosch by more than 10 points to represent Iowa’s 1st Senate district, according to preliminary results posted by county officials. The district primarily consists of Woodbury County, which Republican President Donald Trump had carried by double digits in the 2024 election.

The result is the latest in a series of Democratic wins in special elections this year that are driving optimism about the party’s chances heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

What To Know

In the video, Wahls said Drey’s victory “is going to have profound impacts for our state for many years to come.”

Her win means Democrats hold 17 seats in the 50-member state Senate, enough to break the supermajority the GOP has had since the 2022 election.

Wahls also said it was the fourth special election in Iowa where Democrats “have put up 20-plus point overperformances, which tells you that this state is in play.”

In January, Mike Zimmer, an Iowa Democrat, flipped a state Senate seat in a district that Trump had won by more than 20 points. Democrat Angelina Ramirez won a special election in April for a Cedar Rapids-based Iowa House seat. Republican Blaine Watkins won a special election for an Iowa House seat in March, but Democrats viewed the tight margin as a positive sign.

Wahl’s comments came after an internal poll of the Iowa Senate race commissioned by his campaign showed a tight race.

The Public Policy Polling survey showed Ernst held narrow leads over each candidate on the initial ballot, which provided names without further information. However, when voters were told more about each candidate, Wahls had a narrow lead over Ernst (45 percent to 43 percent).

What People Are Saying

Zach Wahls said in the video: “Most importantly, this is just the latest sign. This is now four straight special elections here in Iowa where Democrats have put up 20-plus point overperformances, which tells you that this state is in play.

“Iowans are sick of the inability of the current administration and politicians like Joni Ernst to deal with rising costs. They are sick of the corruption and they are ready for change. We are going to flip this U.S. Senate seat the exact same way that Catelin Drey flipped her state Senate seat.

The Democratic National Committee said previously in a statement to Newsweek: “The DNC congratulates Iowa Democrat Catelin Drey on her historic win to break the Republican-supermajority in the Iowa state Senate, by winning a district that Donald Trump won by over 11 points in November.”

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said in a statement posted on social media: “For the fourth special election in a row, Iowa voted for change. Catelin Drey will listen to the people, not the powerful, get our economy growing, and bring down costs for families.”

Hart added: “Our state is ready for a new direction and Iowa Democrats will keep putting forward candidates who can deliver better representation for Iowans.”

Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann wrote on X: “National Democrats were so desperate for a win that they activated 30,000 volunteers and a flood of national money to win a state senate special election by a few hundred votes. If the Democrats think things are suddenly so great again for them in Iowa, they will bring back the caucuses.”