An eerily familiar set of headlines is making the rounds in Ethiopia, troubling many in the fragile, northern Tigray region.
Successive delegations of civil society and religious leaders have, in recent weeks, travelled to the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, for “dialogue”. For some, it is a reminder of the events that played out in the final weeks before Tigray descended into war in November 2020.
That war left 600,000 people dead and some five million displaced. It brought global attention to Ethiopia’s fractured politics and tarnished the reputation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had won a Nobel Peace Prize for mending long-severed ties with neighbouring Eritrea.
A ceasefire two years later was supposed to end the war; instead, analysts say, another conflict might be looming. This time, it could involve not just the Tigrayan regional authorities, but also Eritrea, and potentially, that country’s own allies. It is not a conflict that the region can withstand, experts fear.
“We are now at a point where we are all frightened at another conflict in Tigray, and with Eritrea,” analyst Abel Abate Demissie of the Chatham House think tank in the United Kingdom told Al Jazeera. “It would be extremely devastating.”
Fractured agreements signed back in November 2022 that ended the war between the regional Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government are at the root of the tensions. However, it is the deepening resentment between neighbours Eritrea and Ethiopia that analysts say is the scariest development this time.
Ethiopia is a key player in East Africa, and war there could derail regional stability as neighbouring Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia deal with ongoing armed conflict. It could also affect Africa’s self-reliance in the aviation sector, as Addis Ababa is one of Africa’s most important air travel hubs.
Peace agreement pushed aside
War broke out in Tigray in November 2020 after Ethiopia’s Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking a command centre of the national army, the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF).
For decades, the TPLF dominated the ruling coalition in Addis Ababa in what experts say was an autocratic system. The group was disliked in nearly all 10 regions of Ethiopia, a country where regions form along ethnic lines. Eritrea, which fought a border war with TPLF-dominated Ethiopia in 1998, also had gripes with the party. When Abiy, an Oromo, was elected in 2018, though, he established peaceful ties with Eritrea and set about implementing reforms for a stronger central government. The TPLF, however, saw Abiy’s moves as a threat to its power and sought to overthrow his government.
Addis Ababa, in its military response to the TPLF attack, teamed up with other TPLF-opposed entities, including the Amhara army and allied militias, as well as Eritrean forces. All sides were accused of attacking civilians; however, rights groups also accused the federal government of deliberately blocking aid to Tigrayans and causing a near-famine. The United States called attacks by Amhara militias “ethnic cleansing” while many Tigrayans claim the war was a genocide. Many were forcibly displaced from western Tigray, which the Amhara region claims. Thousands of women were raped.
In November 2022, Addis Ababa and TPLF signed the Pretoria peace agreement. The ceasefire deal mandated that the TPLF disarm and a new government be jointly appointed by both sides. It also mandated that Addis Ababa oversee the safe return of displaced people and that all third-party armies withdraw.
However, a power struggle emerged in the TPLF between the Abiy-appointed Tigray mayor, Getachew Reda, and the TPLF head, Debretsion Gebremichael. It began when Getachew attempted to implement the disarmament clause. Core TPLF members, however, accused him of being a sellout. In March, the TPLF faction aligned with Debretsion staged a coup, seized the Mekelle radio station, and forced Getachew to leave Mekelle for Addis Ababa. The coup was a direct affront to Abiy, analysts say. Although he has since appointed another interim president from Debretsion’s camp, Addis Ababa and TPLF have traded insults and threatened attacks.
“Both sides have downplayed their responsibility,” said Abel of Chatham House, speaking of how both sides appear to have moved away from the Pretoria agreement. The TPLF accuses Addis Ababa of failing to resettle people, with some 1.6 million still displaced, and is threatening to forcibly return them. It also blames the government for revoking its licence as a political party, although the national electoral body says it is because the TPLF has failed to hold a general assembly as it previously mandated.
Addis Ababa, on the other hand, has faulted the TPLF for failing to disarm, and also accuses the party of allying with Eritrea.
In a speech in parliament in July, Abiy urged religious leaders and civil society members to warn TPLF leaders against escalation, because when conflict starts, “it would be too late”.
Getachew, who has been expelled from the TPLF, has formed a new party, the Tigray Democratic Solidarity Party. Analysts say it is possible that the party might be installed in Tigray instead.
Meanwhile, Amhara militias and the TPLF continue to clash. Many young people who joined the TPLF in the 2020 war have defected to form new militias allied with Getachew’s faction and attempted an attack on the TPLF in July.
The problem with Eritrea
Ethiopia’s perpetual entanglement with Eritrea has taken on a different dimension since 2020, with both again at loggerheads.
Cracks appeared in their parley after Abiy’s government agreed to peace with the TPLF. President Isaias Afwerki, who has been Eritrea’s de facto leader since 1994, was reportedly angered as he did not feel sufficiently consulted, even as Eritrean troops are still in Tigray.
A bigger problem, however, is Abiy’s comments since 2023 about landlocked Ethiopia’s “existential” need to access a seaport. Asmara has taken those statements as a threat that Addis Ababa might invade and seize the coastal areas it previously lost after Eritrea fought to secede in 1993. In one comment, Abiy described Ethiopia losing sea access as a “historical mistake”.
Since then, Eritrea has been building up defences, sending military tanks to the border, according to analysts, with Ethiopia doing the same. In February, Eritrea put out calls for conscription into the army. Asmara is also reportedly in cahoots with the TPLF to undermine Abiy, although officials deny this.
Both sides do not really want to go to war and are merely posturing, analyst Abel said. Eritrea would meet in Addis Ababa a formidable enemy, and Ethiopia is not eager to mar its reputation as a growing regional leader where the African Union has its headquarters.
“The problem, though, is it only takes one small act to ignite a war, even if both sides don’t want it,” the analyst said.
In March, Abiy attempted to downplay the tensions while speaking in parliament.
“Our intention is to negotiate based on the principle of give and take,” he said, implying that any port deals would be commercial. “Our plan is not to fight but to work together and grow together.”
It is not only Asmara that has been angered by Abiy’s bid to find a port. Neighbouring Somalia nearly declared war last year after Abiy sealed a port deal with the self-declared state of Somaliland. Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory, was furious, but Turkiye, Somalia’s close ally, mediated repairs between the two in December. Before they reconciled, Eritrea held meetings with Somalia, as well as Egypt, which is also angry with Addis Ababa over the Grand Renaissance Dam, which it says will limit its water supply from the Nile.
Can all sides find peace?
Analysts say the work of finding common ground rests mostly with Abiy as Asmara, for one, is not strong on diplomacy, and the TPLF appears more confident with reported Eritrean backing.
The big unknown is whether Abiy is willing and able to restore ties with either the TPLF or Eritrea without either side feeling sidelined. In the background, as well, are the Amhara militias who are still present in disputed western Tigray. Any attempts to remove them could lead to conflict.
In any case, Abiy is already suffering a crisis of legitimacy, analyst Micheal Tsegay Assefa concluded in a brief for the Atlas Institute for International Affairs.
“Regional leaders, particularly from Amhara and Oromia, increasingly question the central government’s capacity to secure peace and manage inter-regional conflicts,” he wrote, due to Addis Ababa’s inability to enforce the peace deal.
Meanwhile, as the sabre-rattling continues, Tigrayans are once again fearing for their lives. The recent tensions have sent scores of people fleeing from the region, with some risking deadly routes to get out of the country altogether.
Researchers say Ethiopian migrants attempting, and dying, to enter Yemen via the Gulf of Aden increasingly appear to be from Tigray, based on the clothing or jewellery found by rescuers during shipwrecks.
Analysts say another war simply must not happen.
“Conflict only needs one side to go rogue,” Abel said. “I really hope that sanity will prevail and all sides will apply wisdom.”
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