A brief period of La Niña conditions is favored during the fall and early winter in the U.S., according to forecasters.
Newsweek spoke with experts about the potential impact of the climate pattern.
Why It Matters
La Niña and its El Niño counterpart can have global impact on weather, wildfires and ecosystems, according to the NOAA’s Ocean Service.
The agency says La Niña can lead to a more severe hurricane season, such as in 2020, when the NOAA noted that La Niña was among the conditions that “helped make [a] record-breaking, extremely active hurricane season possible.” The season produced 30 named storms, it said.
What To Know
La Niña is the cool phase of a natural, recurring climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The other phase is El Niño, which is the warm counterpart, the Climate Prediction Center explains.
La Niña conditions could arrive anytime between October and January, AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok told Newsweek. During this period, the upper jet stream splits over the northern Pacific. The northern branch typically arcs over Alaska before dipping into western Canada and the northern U.S., bringing colder air to those regions, Pastelok said.
“The southern storm track moves through the north-central Pacific and [is] typically aimed more at the Northwest,” Pastelok added.
In its most recent seasonal outlooks for December 2025 to February 2026, NHC forecasts showed there was a 40 percent to 50 percent chance for above normal temperatures across parts of southeast California, southern Nevada and Arizona.
On the other hand, the majority of Washington and northwest Oregon could see below normal temperatures.
In terms of precipitation, central California was given a 33 percent to 44 percent chance of below normal levels, with a greater probability in the southern part of the state, as well as for portions of Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.
“These outlooks do not just incorporate La Niña information; they will also include longer term trends. But for precipitation in particular, the main driver usually is La Niña [or El Niño] when they are occurring,” Michelle L’Heureux, a scientist with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) told Newsweek.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok told Newsweek: “Our long-range team has been watching the trend of ENSO [La Niña and El Niño] for this coming fall. We do see the waters across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific cooling.
“This can impact the upper patterns across the Pacific which would favor ‘La Niña conditions.’ But like last year, it may not be officially a La Niña winter because it should not fit the criteria by NOAA of five consecutive three-month averages with sea surface temperature anomaly at -0.5 C or greater on the negative side.
“Since the signal is weak, it is hard to be certain how much impact this will have on the U.S.”
What Happens Next
The CPC updates its seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation on the third Thursday of every month.
The post Maps Show Potential La Niña Impact for Winter 2025-2026 appeared first on Newsweek.
