Texans Warned of Health Insurance Premium Rise in 2026

Texas is set to see a major increase in the cost of health insurance in 2026, an issue being faced by states nationwide.

As enhanced tax credits for Affordable Care Act (ACA)-compliant plans are set to expire at the end of the year, premium costs are projected to increase by an average of 18 percent across the country, with some states experiencing much higher increases.

“It’s the highest rate increase proposed since 2018,” Allison Hoffman, a professor of law and of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, told Newsweek.

In Texas specifically, carriers in the state have increased their rates by an average of 33 percent for the individual marketplace, the Texas Department of Insurance told Newsweek.

“This is partly a reflection of the loss of the expanded subsidies for 2026, medical cost trends, and a reaction to marketplace predictions nationwide,” the department said.

Why It Matters

The rise in premium costs has led some experts and insurance marketplaces to warn that many could forgo health insurance, which will not only worsen health outcomes but also ramp up premiums even higher.

This is because those who are more likely to drop health insurance tend to be younger and healthier, meaning that those left using health insurance will be more expensive to insure, requiring more complex care.

What To Know

The enhanced tax credits were originally implemented by former President Joe Biden for those using ACA marketplaces to help more Americans get access to health care coverage. He extended them to the end of 2025.

However, as the Trump administration has given no indication it intends to renew these subsidies, likely because they come at a steep cost to the taxpayer, they are currently set to expire at the end of the year.

When the enhanced tax credits expire, “people who do not anticipate needing a lot of medical care may decide not to renew their coverage, increasing the average cost per insured,” Hoffman said.

“Insurers may preemptively try to increase premiums out of concerns about tariffs or other federal regulations that might make it more expensive for insurers to operate marketplace plans,” she added.

However, while the increase in prices for 2026 is higher than in previous years, rises in premium costs are “routine,” Richard Scheffler, a professor of health economics and public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, told Newsweek. “As health care prices go up, so do insurance rates.”

There are also a number of other factors impacting the cost of premiums, including inflation, labor costs, and “especially, the cost of high-priced drugs such as GLP-1 drugs used for weight management,” Hoffman said.

What People Are Saying

The Texas Department of Insurance told Newsweek: “Premium costs will increase for individuals buying health insurance on the federal marketplace. Premiums in Texas will be tempered by federal tax subsidies and increased cost-sharing reductions (CSR) loading required by Texas statute and rule.”

Professor Allison Hoffman told Newsweek: “These increases plus the expiration of the enhanced federal subsidies will mean more people will be unable to afford their premiums and will be uninsured. They are more likely to go without necessary care. These changes will also have an impact on hospitals, who will treat more uninsured patients. And when premiums rise, the cost of federal subsidies go up, so the federal government will pay more to insure fewer people.”

Professor Richard Scheffler told Newsweek: “Florida has had an increase in prices as has California and Texas so rates go up but they go up more in states that have a less competitive insurance market with one or two insurers having a dominant position and a large share of market.”

He added, “Health insurance plans differ in what benefits are covered and payments like deductibles and co payments. The underlying risks of population using care often differ, e.g. if your plan has a higher percentage of elderly people, their use of care will be higher and the costs will be as well.”