Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Flash floods in northern Pakistan kill nearly 400 people, the Trump administration calls off trade talks with India and deals another blow to bilateral ties, and South Asia watches the fledgling Russia-Ukraine peace process closely.
Pakistan’s Latest Climate Catastrophe
Dozens of people died in flash floods that followed torrential rains beginning last Thursday in northern Pakistan, mainly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province but also in the regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. The flooding destroyed infrastructure, farms, and homes—even entire villages. Some were families buried by mudslides.
The death toll from the floods has now risen to nearly 400 people. Since heavier-than-usual monsoon rains began in late June, more than 700 people have died, according to the Pakistani government. The monsoon season doesn’t end until mid-September. On Tuesday and Wednesday, deadly floods also hit the megacity of Karachi, Pakistan’s financial capital.
Floods are common in Pakistan, but they have surged in intensity in recent years. A massive flash flood incident killed more than 1,000 people and displaced nearly 8 million in 2022. Scientists link the main triggers for these disasters—heavy monsoon rains and glacial melt—to climate change. Pakistan ranks as one of the most climate change-vulnerable countries.
The latest floods are a reminder of the high stakes for Pakistan of international climate talks. At the U.N. climate conference in November 2022, known as COP27, Islamabad had a big hand in a major achievement: Just weeks after that year’s floods, Pakistani delegates helped convince developed countries to agree to a loss-and-damage fund that would provide compensation to countries vulnerable to climate change.
But efforts to implement the initiative have lagged. U.S. President Donald Trump arguably delivered the biggest blow in March, announcing that the United States will back out of the loss-and-damage fund altogether. This move, coupled with the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, suggests that U.S. negotiators—if they even participate in climate talks—will have little interest in helping developing countries strengthen resilience.
Opponents of international climate assistance might argue that countries need to do a better job with the resources they have. Critics have pointed to a slew of policy missteps surrounding Pakistan’s recent floods, including weather advisories that failed to provide guidance on preparedness, lax enforcement of construction restrictions in flood-prone areas, early warning systems that weren’t properly activated, and inadequate disaster response tactics.
More broadly, Pakistani environmentalists have previously expressed concerns about government climate plans that go unimplemented, a tendency to pass new climate laws without properly enforcing existing ones, and provincial-level authorities lacking the technical and financial capacity to carry out climate plans.
However, there are also many steps to mitigate the effects of climate change that Pakistani decision-makers—from senior officials to community leaders—lack the funding and technology and infrastructure to implement successfully. These include scaling up the use of climate-resilient building materials, erecting stronger river embankments and more effective drainage systems, and building more robust early warning systems.
Most importantly, at the end of the day, Pakistan has no way of controlling—much less stopping—rising sea levels, heavy rains, and punishing heat; the country has contributed very little to the effects of global warming, relative to developed states.
At COP30, the 2025 U.N. climate conference to be held in November in Brazil, Pakistan may well join a range of like-minded nations—including, in a rare case of agreement, India—to try to reinvigorate discussions around the loss-and-damage fund, even with the United States opting out.
For South Asia, it’s about being better equipped to manage the increasingly serious threat posed by climate change—with Pakistan’s recent floods just the latest grim reminder.
What We’re Following
U.S. cancels trade talks with India. Indian media reported over the weekend that the Trump administration called off trade talks with New Delhi scheduled for next week. This significantly reduces the chances of India getting tariff relief before an additional 25 percent levy due to its imports of Russian oil goes into effect on Aug. 27.
It’s unclear why the trade talks, which would have been the sixth round of negotiations since Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to pursue a new bilateral trade agreement in February, were called off. Back then, the two leaders committed to finalizing the first phase of a deal by the fall—a goal that might now be in jeopardy.
The U.S. decision should be viewed against the backdrop of Trump’s intensifying efforts to seek a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. It may be another pressure tactic meant to compel India to reduce its energy and arms purchases from Russia. Given New Delhi’s special relationship with Moscow, it’s a gambit that’s unlikely to succeed, as FP’s Sumit Ganguly wrote last week.
Instead, calling off trade talks delivers another blow to a U.S.-India relationship in free fall and badly in need of a confidence-boosting measure like a trade deal. Floundering ties also give India a stronger incentive to ease tensions with China—a push that has intensified in recent months as New Delhi has looked to hedge against uncertain relations with Washington.
This week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in New Delhi and called on the two sides to view each other as partners, not adversaries.
South Asia and Ukraine diplomacy. Countries in the region will be watching closely to see what becomes of a fledgling peace process to end Russia’s war in Ukraine after Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week and his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders at the White House on Monday.
South Asian capitals have long wanted to bring an end to the war. India’s predicament has received the most attention. The conflict has piled Western pressure on New Delhi due to its close ties to Moscow, which reached a fever pitch in recent weeks as Trump threatened additional tariffs on India because of its Russian oil imports.
Other countries in the region also have friendly ties with Moscow. Russia is a key investor in Bangladesh’s nuclear energy sector, has explored investment opportunities in Nepal’s hydropower sector, and recently started exporting oil to Pakistan. But South Asia doesn’t benefit from a long war.
Thousands of poor workers from Nepal and Sri Lanka have been tricked into fighting for the Russian army. The war’s global financial shocks have hit fragile economies hard. And most of the region’s governments have nonaligned foreign policies and don’t want to feel pressured by the United States or any power to engage less with Russia or more with Ukraine.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party makes pre-election play. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is heavily favored to win the country’s next election, which is expected to take place in February. With the Awami League—the party of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—banned from participating, there is no party with the clout or resources to compete with the BNP head-to-head.
The one scenario where the BNP could face a challenge is if a critical mass of the country’s Islamist parties—many of which have been emboldened by Hasina’s departure a year ago—can form an alliance. The BNP has ended its prior alliance with Bangladesh’s most prominent religious party, Jamaat-e-Islami, which has linked up with one other Islamist party so far.
Against this backdrop, BNP leaders have quietly sought to explore possible new alliances with other religious parties, but it is a sensitive issue: The BNP doesn’t want to be seen as backing Islamist forces, but it seems to view it as the best strategy for neutralizing its only possible major electoral threat.
Significantly, one of the groups that the BNP is reportedly courting is Hefazat-e-Islam—a nongovernmental organization that rails against perceived threats to Islam and has massive street mobilization power. Because Hefazat isn’t a formal political party, BNP could use plausible deniability against claims that it is using the group to help its electoral prospects.
Under the Radar
South Asia’s infrastructure binge has been a big storyline in recent years: Tunnels, bridges, and highways have been constructed across the region, boosting connectivity and aiming for positive outcomes from more trade to less traffic. But a recent cautionary tale from Nepal highlights how these large development projects can go wrong.
A Kathmandu Post investigation published this week highlights the struggles of the massive Bheri Babai Diversion Multipurpose Project in the country’s west. It generated buzz in 2019, when its first major initiative—a seven-mile tunnel sponsored by a Chinese contractor—was completed nearly a year ahead of schedule. Subsequent activities have been beset by problems.
These include a new dam and a river diversion project meant to strengthen irrigation and boost hydropower production, which face land acquisition struggles, local resistance, and delays getting materials and environmental clearances. These projects were originally slated to be completed in 2022-23, but they are not expected to be finished until 2027-28.
Chinese infrastructure projects have experienced recent slowdowns in South Asia due to security concerns and economic constraints. But the Nepal case is a reminder that local factors—from bureaucracy to community grievances—can pose obstacles, too.
Delays to a hydropower project may also have regional implications; this year, Nepal inaugurated a new electricity-sharing deal with Bangladesh and India.
FP’s Most Read This Week
- Key Takeaways From Trump’s Meeting With Zelensky by Rishi Iyengar
- The Next Israel-Iran War Is Coming by Trita Parsi
- Trump Has No Idea How to Do Diplomacy by Stephen M. Walt
Regional Voices
In Pakistan Today, freelance columnist Muhammad Bilal Khan argues that grassroots initiatives are easing access to clean water amid insufficient government efforts. “Government plans speak of national water policies and conservation targets,” he writes. “But plans stall for want of funds or political will. Projects rise and then fall silent when leaders change. People learn to live with broken promises and to solve problems with their own hands.”
A Kuensel editorial discusses how Bhutan should pursue its ambitious goal of achieving a tenfold increase in economic growth by 2035: “At the heart of the 10X vision must be job creation, especially as youth unemployment rises. Every initiative, every reform, and every investment must be judged not just by revenue growth but by its capacity to create meaningful opportunities for Bhutanese.”
In South Asian Voices, researcher Bashir Ali Abbas writes about prospects for an India-Bangladesh reset, one year after Hasina’s fall from power: “At this critical stage in Bangladesh’s political transition, the neighbors should look to clear the slate, setting the relationship up for success when the next government takes power in Dhaka.”
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