Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears narrowed former Representative Abigail Spanberger’s lead in the Virginia gubernatorial race, according to a new poll.
Newsweek reached out to the Earle-Sears campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Virginia’s off-year election will be a key gauge for both parties ahead of the 2026 midterms, when Democrats are hoping for a 2018-style “blue wave” that will help them flip control of Congress.
Historically, the party out of the White House performs well in the race, so it will be a test of whether Republicans can buck historical trends. Democrats, meanwhile, are testing a centrist message with Spanberger, a moderate who served in a battleground House district from 2019 to 2025.
Virginia has shifted toward Democrats over the past 20 years, though Republicans have proved competitive in the state’s off-year gubernatorial races. Spanberger has carved out an early polling lead, but the latest Roanoke College poll suggested that lead has become smaller since its previous survey in May.
What To Know
The poll, which surveyed 702 Virginia residents from August 11 to August 15, 2025, found Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by seven points (46 percent to 39 percent), a narrower margin than the 17-point lead Spanberger held in the May poll (43 percent to 26 percent).
Fewer voters—14 percent—said they were undecided compared to May, when 28 percent were still unsure of for whom they would cast their ballot in November, the poll found.
Virginians still view Spanberger more favorably than Earle-Sears. Forty-four percent said they view the Democratic candidate favorably, while 38 percent said they view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 36 percent said they view Earle-Sears favorably, and 43 percent viewed her unfavorably.
Democrats also held leads in the other statewide races. Democrat Ghazala Hashmi led Republican John Reid by three points in the lieutenant governor race (38 percent to 35 percent), while Democrat Jay Jones led Republican incumbent Jason Miyares in the attorney general race (41 percent to 38 percent).
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points and was weighted to reflect the 2021 Virginia exit poll, a strong year for Republicans.
Other polls have similarly given Spanberger a lead. A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released in July showed Spanberger up 12 points (48 percent to 36 percent). It surveyed 809 adults, 764 of whom are registered to vote, from June 19, 2025, to July 3, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 percentage points.
A HarrisX poll of 1,000 likely voters from May 9 to May 13, 2025, showed Spanberger up four points (52 percent to 48 percent).
What People Are Saying
An Abigail Spanberger spokesperson told Newsweek: “Abigail Spanberger is laser-focused on addressing what are Virginians’ top-of-mind challenges — this poll makes that crystal clear. Abigail has spoken with Virginians across the Commonwealth who are being squeezed by high costs — and to get to work on day one to lower costs across the board for Virginians, Abigail laid out her Affordable Virginia Plan.
“To protect Virginians’ jobs, grow Virginia’s economy, and support Virginia’s workforce, Abigail will advance the priorities outlined in her Growing Virginia Plan. As Virginia’s next Governor, Abigail will continue to put petty political games aside, put Virginia first, and stand up to the chaos in Washington to deliver for the Commonwealth — because that’s the leadership Virginians deserve.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College, wrote in the polling report: “The race for governor appears to be tightening, but Spanberger still leads. Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote.”
The Virginia GOP wrote in a post to X: “With 14 percent still undecided, the Roanoke poll shows that Earle-Sears has gained 12 points on Spanberger since May, and now holds the clear momentum in the race. As much as Abigail Spanberger has tried to hide her record of voting with Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi every time, voters just aren’t buying it.”
Analyst Drew Savicki wrote to X: “So the new VA gov poll is weighted to the exit poll of the 2021 gubernatorial race. The 2025 electorate will be considerably bluer.”
What Happens Next
The Virginia gubernatorial election is on November 4, 2025. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as leaning toward Spanberger.
The post Winsome Earle-Sears Surges in New Virginia Poll Against Abigail Spanberger appeared first on Newsweek.
