California Governor Gavin Newsom‘s chances of beating New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 are increasing.
According to online betting website Polymarket, a platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events, Newsom is leading the progressive firebrand by 7 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup that also includes other high-profile Democratic figures.
This is 3 percentage points more than earlier this month, when he was 4 percentage points ahead of AOC.
Why It Matters
While neither Newsom nor AOC have formally announced their candidacy in the 2028 Democratic primaries, they have not ruled it out. They have both been mentioned as figures who could lead the Democratic Party into the next election, following then-Vice President Kamala Harris‘ loss to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Whoever emerges as the next party leader will shape the Democratic narrative for change and hold a lot of responsibility for healing internal divisions in the party and leading it to electoral success.
What To Know
Newsom has sparked speculation that he might run for president because he has delivered a number of speeches around the country and he has been among the leading candidates in most polls of the 2028 primary.
Meanwhile, AOC has posted campaign-style social media videos and toured the country with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders earlier this year.
The betting odds also showed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has a 9 percent chance of winning the nomination while Maryland Governor Wes Moore is on 6 percent. Harris is at 5 percent.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K, said: “We are incredibly early in the presidential election cycle with campaigning proper still years down the line. But everything Gavin Newsom is doing suggests he’s serious about running in 2028. This started last year when he didn’t put his hat in the running once Joe Biden relinquished the Democrat nomination, and has continued through building a sizeable war chest, building his public profile beyond California through everything from the regular media round to launching his own podcast, presenting California as a bastion against presidential overreach, and now mocking Trump through memes and X posts.
“At this stage in the cycle, it’s all about getting yourself known, both personally and by what you stand for. AOC is well known but currently her left-leaning makes her less attractive to center-right voters who could be wooed away from Trump. Resolutely branding himself as centrist, Newsom could reach the parts of the electorate never open to AOC. He’s flying his kite high at the moment and all the signs are this will lead to a serious run in 2028.”
In June 2025, Newsom told the Wall Street Journal: “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
In April, AOC told a Fox News Digital reporter: “Frankly, what people should be most concerned about is the fact that Republicans are trying to cut Medicaid right now and people’s healthcare. It’s a danger and that’s really what my central focus is.”
What Happens Next
Whether or not Newsom and AOC run remains to be seen. Candidates don’t tend to announce presidential runs until after the midterm elections which, in this cycle, are slated for November 2026.
Meanwhile, a number of other high-profile Democrats are rumored to be considering a presidential run, including Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
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