LA PAZ, Bolivia (AP) — Bolivians headed to the polls on Sunday to vote in that could spell the end of the Andean nation’s long-dominant leftist party and see a right-wing government elected for the first time in over two decades.
The election on Sunday is one of the most consequential for Bolivia in recent times — and one of the most unpredictable.
Even at this late stage, a remarkable . Polls show the two leading right-wing candidates, multimillionaire and former , locked in a virtual dead heat.
Many undecided voters
But a right-wing victory isn’t assured. Many longtime voters for the governing Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party, , live in rural areas and tend to be undercounted in polling.
With the nation’s leaving Bolivians waiting for hours in fuel lines, and squeezed by double-digit inflation, the opposition candidates are billing the race as a chance to alter the country’s destiny.
“I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite,” Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of Aurora Macro Strategies, a New York-based advisory firm, writes in a memo. Breaking the MAS party’s monopoly on political power, he adds, pushes “the country into uncharted political waters amid rising polarization, severe economic fragility and a widening rural–urban divide.”
Bolivia could follow rightward trend
The outcome will determine whether Bolivia — a nation of about 12 million people with the and crucial deposits of rare earth minerals — follows a growing trend in Latin America, where right-wing leaders like , Ecuador’s and have surged in popularity.
A right-wing government in Bolivia could trigger a major geopolitical realignment for a country now allied with and world powers such as , and .
Conservative candidates vow to restore US relations
Doria Medina and Quiroga have praised the and vowed to restore — ruptured in 2008 when charismatic, long-serving expelled the American ambassador.
The right-wing front-runners also have expressed interest in doing business with Israel, which has , and called for foreign private companies to invest in the country and develop its rich natural resources.
After storming to office in 2006 at the , Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, nationalized the nation’s oil and gas industry, using the lush profits to reduce poverty, expand infrastructure and improve the lives of the rural poor.
After , as well as a bid for an in 2019 that set off and led to his , Morales has been by Bolivia’s constitutional court.
His ally-turned-rival, President Luis Arce, on account of his plummeting popularity and nominated his senior minister, Eduardo del Castillo.
As the party splintered, who hails from the same union of coca farmers as Morales, launched his bid.
Ex-president Morales urges supports to deface ballots
Rather than back the candidate widely considered his heir, Morales, and evading an arrest warrant on charges related to his relationship with a 15-year-old girl, has urged his supporters to or leave them blank.
Voting is mandatory in Bolivia, where some 7.9 million Bolivians are eligible to vote.
Doria Medina and Quiroga, familiar faces in Bolivian politics who both served in past neoliberal governments and have run for president three times before, have struggled to stir up interest as voter angst runs high.
“There’s enthusiasm for change but no enthusiasm for the candidates,” said Eddy Abasto, 44, a Tupperware vendor in Bolivia’s capital of La Paz torn between voting for Doria Medina and Quiroga. “It’s always the same, those in power live happily spending the country’s money, and we suffer.”
Conservative candidates say austerity needed
Doria Medina and Quiroga have warned of the need for a painful fiscal adjustment, including the elimination of Bolivia’s generous food and fuel subsidies, to save the nation from insolvency. Some analysts caution this risks sparking social unrest.
“A victory for either right-wing candidate could have grave repercussions for Bolivia’s Indigenous and impoverished communities,” said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network, a Bolivian research group. “Both candidates could bolster security forces and right-wing para-state groups, paving the way for violent crackdowns on protests expected to erupt over the foreign exploitation of lithium and drastic austerity measures.”
All 130 seats in Bolivia’s Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Parliament, are up for grabs, along with 36 in the Senate, the upper house.
If, as is widely expected, no one receives more than 50% of the vote, or 40% of the vote with a lead of 10 percentage points, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on Oct. 19 for the first time since Bolivia’s 1982 return to democracy.
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