Three Cutthroat Emmy Categories That Could Shake Up the Race

Final Emmy voting kicks off on Monday. At this point in the race, there are usually several races that feel very competitive. But this year, many categories have obvious front-runners—particularly Adolescence for limited series and Severance for drama series. Severance earned the most nominations of any show this year, with 27 total, and Adolescence is also a very beloved show, with 13 nominations.

But there’s still some room for drama. As discussed on this week’s episode of Little Gold Men, some of the acting races may be closer than they first appear. The hosts also made their picks for a few underdogs (Jeff Hiller for Somebody Somewhere!) that they’d love to see get Emmy love.

The truth is, you never know what’s going to happen at the Emmys. Let’s take a closer look at three of the races that could surprise us this year.

Comedy Series

It’s the battle of the Hollywood-set shows, with Hacks (the incumbent) up against The Studio. HBO Max’s Hacks had a very strong, critically acclaimed fourth season, earning 14 Emmy nominations. But it was also notably snubbed in categories like supporting actor, where Paul W. Downs and Carl Clemons-Hopkins had both been nominated before.

The Studio earned more nominations (23 in total)—but it’s worth noting that the series over-indexed in places like guest actor, where it took five of the category’s six spots. The popular Apple TV+ series nabbed all the acting nominations it was expected to get, and will likely win in several categories. As a shiny new show, The Studio has the edge to win the big category—but it’s very likely Hacks could win in the writing category, where the shows are going up against each other once again. Most likely, neither show will go home empty-handed.

Drama Actress

The two front-runners in this category have very different backstories. Kathy Bates is a beloved acting icon who, at 77, made history as the oldest performer ever nominated in this category. She’s the sole nominee for her show, CBS’s Matlock. It’s rare for an acting nominee whose show has no other nominations to win here; the last time it happened was when Orphan Black star Tatiana Maslany scored a win in 2016, according to Gold Derby.

But Bates is also an Emmy darling, most recently nominated in 2015 and 2016 for American Horror Story: Freak Show and American Horror Story: Hotel, respectively. And she’s won two Emmys before, for a guest appearance on Two and a Half Men and a supporting-actress win for American Horror Story: Coven.

On the other end of the scale is Britt Lower, a first-time Emmy nominee for her work on the second season of Severance. Her show comes in with the most nominations of any series this year, which speaks to the TV Academy’s support for Severance. But Lower is a rising star with plenty more time to win Emmys, while Bates is an icon, and many might feel she is due another big moment.

There’s a possibility that Severance could miss out in every acting category, especially if Lower loses to Bates. Adam Scott is up against The Pitt’s Noah Wyle, who is considered the best bet for his show to win an award. And though Tramell Tillman, John Turturro, and Zach Cherry are nominated for supporting actor, they’re all competing against Walton Goggins for his show-stopping White Lotus performance.

Comedy Guest Acting

The comedy-guest-actor categories are star-studded this year, and contain some of the season’s tightest races. Hacks, Poker Face, and The Bear have each won guest actress in a comedy series recently, and all have strong contenders again this year. Cynthia Erivo is nominated for playing five identical sisters on Poker Face (and was in the spotlight the past year thanks to Wicked and the upcoming Wicked: For Good). Julianne Nicholson is nominated for playing the insane dance mom on Hacks, and she’s a rare double nominee this year—she’s also up for drama supporting actress for Paradise. And last year’s winner in this category, Jamie Lee Curtis, is once again nominated for The Bear. Any of these three actresses could win here, so the final result is a real coin toss.

As previously mentioned, guest actor in a comedy features five actors from The Studio: Bryan Cranston, Martin Scorsese, Dave Franco, Ron Howard, and Anthony Mackie. There’s also The Bear’s Jon Bernthal, who won this category last year. Bernthal is an actor’s actor, and could win again even though his show didn’t earn as much love this season as it has in the past. But because The Studio has been such a hit with voters, the award is more likely to go to one of its contenders. Which one will the voters pick? Cranston is the only man here not appearing as a heightened version of himself—he plays a Robert Evans–esque studio overlord—which gives him a leg up. But it’s also possible that voters would love to see Scorsese win an acting Emmy and pick him solely for that reason.