Republicans are reportedly planning to spend millions of dollars to boost Senator John Cornyn in Texas to avoid a more competitive—and expensive—general election next November, as polls suggest GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton could be more vulnerable against Democrat Colin Allred.
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak told Newsweek that it would be “political malpractice” for Republicans to have to invest more than $200 million in the general election because Paxton wins the nomination, and that Cornyn has a “plan to win this race.”
Newsweek reached out to the Paxton campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Texas is among the states that Democrats are hoping to make competitive in next year’s midterms. President Donald Trump carried it by double digits last November.
Democrats must win at least two Senate races in double-digit Trump states to win back control of the Senate. Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points, and North Carolina, which voted for Trump by only three points, are viewed as Democrats’ top targets.
However, no other Harris or single-digit Trump states are up for grabs, so they are looking at races in states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential opportunities.
The outcome of the GOP primary between Cornyn and Paxton could have key implications for how competitive the race is. Cornyn leads Allred, a former congressman, by a more comfortable margin in polling than Paxton. But Paxton is favored by many of the state’s more conservative voters and has built an early primary polling lead.
What To Know
The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the GOP’s principal Senate super PAC, urged donors to invest in Paxton during the primary to avoid a more expensive general election, according to a presentation obtained and reported by Punchbowl News.
Helping Cornyn win the GOP nomination would cost up to $70 million, but it could cost up to $250 million to help Paxton win the general election, according to the report. The presentation also included a slide showing Cornyn leading Allred by about six points, while Paxton trails by about one point.
A poll from YouGov and Texas Southern University, which surveyed 1,200 registered voters from May 9 to May 19, 2025, showed Cornyn led Allred by four percentage points (48 percent to 44 percent), while Paxton led by only two points (48 percent to 46 percent).
It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a survey conducted by GOP pollster Brad Parscale showed Paxton trailing Allred in a hypothetical matchup. It found that 52 percent of voters would likely vote for Allred, while 37 percent would vote for Paxton. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters in mid-April.
Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek that while Paxton would still likely be favored in a general election because Texas remains reliably red, he would be more vulnerable than Cornyn due to having a “considerable amount of political, ethical and legal baggage.”
A “perfect storm” for Democrats could brew if Paxton becomes the nominee, the economy struggles, and Trump’s approval rating continues to dwindle, Jones said.
The overall national environment could be a critical question in determining how competitive the race becomes, he said.
“If it’s a good election year for Republicans, say like 2024 or even 2022, then even Paxton should be able to win under that scenario,” Jones said. “I think the fear that Republicans have is, what if 2026 is more like 2018 than 2024. If it’s like 2018, when they were within three points of defeating [Texas Senator] Ted Cruz, that’s where having a flawed candidate like Ken Paxton could be a real liability.”
The latest polls also show Paxton leading Cornyn in the primary.
A University of Tyler poll, which surveyed 538 registered voters from May 28 to June 7, showed Paxton leading by about 10 points (44 percent to 34 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The YouGov/Texas Southern University survey also showed Paxton leading by about nine points (43 percent to 34 percent).
Cornyn, for his part, is already doing two things he should do to win back support in the primary by working to boost his image among GOP primary voters, while also using resources to tarnish Paxton’s image, Jones said.
Despite these polls, winning Texas would be a major uphill challenge for Allred or another Democrat. Texas has not voted Democratic on the presidential level since 1976, and has not voted for a Democratic senator since 1988. The state last elected a Democratic governor in 1990.
Trump won Texas by more than 13 points last November, performing stronger in suburban areas while also making inroads in Southern Texas, a heavily Hispanic area that shifted rightward.
Allred, however, lost by a smaller 8.5 margin against Cruz.
Trump has declined to endorse in the race so far.
What People Are Saying
Senator John Cornyn’s campaign senior adviser, Matt Mackowiak, told Newsweek: “It would be political malpractice for the GOP to have to invest $200+ million to hold a safe Senate seat if Crooked Ken Paxton is the nominee. John Cornyn hasn’t been on the ballot in five years. Educating voters about his actual record is job #1 — especially his 99.2% record voting with Trump while President. All public polling shows Cornyn’s image with Republican voters is solid and it will continue to grow as voters learn about his actual record. We have a plan to win this race and we are executing it.”
President Donald Trump told reporters in April: “I like Paxton, I like Cornyn, they’re both good people. So, I’ll make a decision somewhere along the line. But you have two very good men.”
Colin Allred, on July 1 in a post to X: “Washington is broken and the system is rigged – and Texas families are paying the price. Today I’m announcing I’m running for the U.S. Senate because Texans deserve someone who will fight for them. From working to lower costs to taking on corruption, I’m ready to be the fighter Texans deserve.”
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Republican, meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point” but has “the potential to become engaged.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball also lists the Texas Senate race as Likely Republican.
The primary will be held on March 3, 2026.
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