Bosnia and Herzegovina’s battered post-war political system could lose its villain after the country’s election body stripped pro-Russian separatist politician Milorad Dodik of office and banned him from political activity for at least six years on Wednesday.
Until he resigns or is forced out, Dodik remains the head of Republika Srpska, Bosnia’s Serb‑majority entity, a platform he has used to butt heads with the country’s international peace envoy, High Representative Christian Schmidt.
“Dodik has long been one of the key sources of instability in the Balkans,” political analyst Srdjan Blagovčanin told POLITICO.
The saga has dragged on for most of this year, starting with a February court ruling that handed Dodik a one‑year prison sentence — likely to be swapped with a monetary fine — for defying the Constitutional Court and encouraging separatist activity.
But it’s the political ban that could shake up EU candidate Bosnia’s future, and that of the wider region.
Local authorities issued an arrest warrant for Dodik in March, and in April, he bolted to Moscow to meet up with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Widely viewed as Putin’s top Balkan ally, Dodik has openly wielded Kremlin influence to stoke divisions at home.
Dodik hinted he would reject Wednesday’s decision, saying “surrendering is not an option… giving up does not exist.”
Uncertainty remains over who would enforce the decision if Dodik defies it, a problem amplified by the fact that Dodik has been increasing the salaries and procurement of weapons for police forces in the Bosnian Serb-majority region he leads.
“When there was an active warrant for his arrest, he was constantly protected by heavily armed police units… he views the police as a support system — not only for a potential crisis escalation, but primarily for his own personal protection,” Blagovčanin said.
The EU expanded its peacekeeping mission earlier this year amid the Dodik crisis but has so far balked at directly intervening to arrest him, likely due to a “tacit consensus within the international community that EUFOR’s mandate should be interpreted very narrowly,” he continued.
Dodik’s escalations are thought to be a direct consequence of the changing U.S. administration, with Trump allies such as Rudy Giuliani and disgraced Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich voicing their support for Dodik in culture-war terms that depict him as a victimized Christian leader in a Muslim-majority country.
“His destructive politics gained additional momentum after the change in the U.S. administration… Dodik interpreted that vacuum as an opportunity to radicalize and push his own agenda,” concluded Blagovčanin.
Dodik didn’t immediately respond to POLITICO’s request for comment.
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