Two things appear to be true about the ongoing controversy over Donald Trump’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein and his administration’s reluctance to release all the files related to the case:
- Donald Trump will survive this, as he has survived so many other scandals, controversies and gaffes over the past decade.
- This story has reached critical velocity—and isn’t going anywhere.
Let’s go through each of those points.
While there’s no question that the Epstein files story has led to more public rebellion from key MAGA influencers than we have seen, well, ever, I think you have to be very careful not to assume that we are witnessing some major splintering of the party base.
But there is zero evidence in polling data that suggests there is any statistically significant erosion of Trump’s numbers among self-identified Republicans.
Recent Gallup polling has reconfirmed Trump’s rock-solid support among GOP voters. And that is far from an isolated result. The Decision Desk HQ average (through mid-July) pegs Trump’s approval rating among Republicans at 86.5% —consistent with where he has been for months.
Unless and until Republicans start to abandon Trump, talk of how Epstein (or anything else) is the “end” of the president is way, way premature.
But again, the Epstein story is still picking up steam as it permeates into the general public’s consciousness.
New polling from The Washington Post shows that nearly two thirds of the American public (64%) are paying “a lot” (26%) or “some” (38%) attention to the story. Only one in 10 people are paying no attention to it.
As expected in these polarized times, Democrats are watching the story most closely—presumably thrilled at the struggles Trump and his administration have had in dealing with it. But numbers among Republicans— and particularly those who describe themselves as “MAGA Republicans”—are also significant. When almost 6 in 10 members of your base are paying “a lot” or “some” attention to a story that is, without question, bad for you, it means it’s not going to just go away. (And remember that Fox News has largely ignored the story—which makes the numbers among the GOP base all the more remarkable.)
And the Post’s polling confirms an “overwhelming majority” of those surveyed, across the political spectrum, believe the “Epstein files” should be released.
What should we conclude about all of this? A few things.
First, the Epstein controversy isn’t going to end Trump’s presidency. Or lead to some sort of wholesale revolt among Republicans against him. At least not yet.
Second, Trump’s current position—the files are boring, there’s nothing in them, move on—is simply not tenable. His base is paying attention to the story, and they want to see all the files.
Will Trump give them what they want? I honestly don’t know, especially because we understand—thank you, Pam Bondi!—that his name appears in the files several times. (Trump has, however, denied this is the case.)
What’s clear is that Trump needs to give the public something more on the story. What he has done to date hasn’t worked. And isn’t going to just start working.
Want more ball and strike calling—no matter what uniform the batter at the plate is wearing? Check out Chris Cillizza’s Substack and YouTube channel.
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