Support for Donald Trump among conservative voters has seen a steady decline over the past three months, according to new polling from YouGov/The Economist.
In May, Trump held a commanding approval rating of 88 percent among conservatives, with just 11 percent disapproving — a net approval of +77. But that margin has narrowed each month since. By June, approval slipped to 83 percent, with disapproval rising to 15 percent, bringing his net rating down to +68.
The downward trend continued into July, with Trump’s conservative approval dropping to 81 percent and disapproval climbing to 17 percent — a net approval rating of just +64, the lowest in months.
Why It Matters
Conservative voters have long been the foundation of Donald Trump’s political strength — especially in primaries and battleground states where even small shifts can have outsized effects. The steady erosion of his approval among conservatives, as captured by YouGov/The Economist polling, signals potential cracks in that foundation heading into the 2026 midterms and beyond.
Economic Strains Driving the Decline
The polling shows that economic issues are at the heart of the dip. Among conservatives, approval of Trump’s handling of the economy has held steady at 81 percent in both June and July — down slightly from 85 percent in May. But perceptions of where the economy is heading have darkened. In May, 59 percent of conservatives said the economy was getting better, compared to just 14 percent who said it was getting worse. That optimism fell to 50/15 in June and 53/17 in July.
Approval of Trump’s handling of inflation has dropped more sharply. In May, conservatives backed his approach by a margin of 84 to 14. By June, support had fallen to 74/22, and by July 18, it was down to 66/25 — a significant net drop of 29 points in just two months.
The souring sentiment comes as inflation ticked up nationally: annual inflation rose to 2.7 percent in June, up from 2.4 percent in May, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Meanwhile, Americans now face an average tariff rate of 18.7 percent, the highest since 1933, according to the Yale Budget Lab — a direct result of Trump’s expansive tariff policies.
“Big Beautiful Bill” and Epstein Fallout Add to Conservative Frustration
Trump’s signature legislative package — known as the “Big Beautiful Bill” — is also starting to lose ground among conservatives. In June, 73 percent of conservatives supported the bill, while 18 percent opposed it. Although still a majority, this level of support masks unease about its contents: critics argue that the bill prioritizes tax cuts for the wealthy while cutting safety-net programs, such as Medicaid and SNAP.
Adding further strain is the backlash surrounding Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case. Approval among conservatives on the issue sits at just 44 percent, with 32 percent disapproving — unusually high for his base. Notably, 55 percent of conservatives believe the government is covering up evidence in the case, and 77 percent say all documents should be released.
The discontent intensified after a Justice Department memo last week confirmed Epstein died by suicide in 2019 and that the government does not possess a “client list” — directly contradicting conspiracy theories promoted by some Trump-aligned figures. Trump reportedly lashed out at his own supporters, calling them “weaklings” for being “duped” by what he called a “hoax” pushed by Democrats. He later walked back the comments and directed Attorney General Pam Bondi to begin the process of unsealing grand jury materials related to Epstein.
Immigration Still a Relative Strong Point — But Slipping
But there is one topic where Trump fares slightly better among conservatives, with the president’s numbers having only seen a marginal decline since May.
In July, 85 percent of conservatives approved of Trump’s job performance on immigration — down slightly from 88 percent in May and up from 83 percent in June, suggesting his aggressive second-term agenda, including mass deportation operations, expanded detention facilities, and record-low border crossings, continues to resonate with much of his base.
Throughout his second term, Trump has aggressively expanded immigration enforcement—launching mass deportation operations, increasing raids in sanctuary cities, and reviving thousands of old deportation cases. Meanwhile, crossings at the southern border hit a historic low last month, and he has secured billions in additional funding for border security and expanded enforcement operations.
His administration has also dramatically scaled up detention capacity, allocating $45 billion to expand ICE facilities and construct large-scale temporary camps, including a tent facility in Florida nicknamed “Alligator Alcatraz.”
Broader Sentiment On The Decline
Nonetheless, broader sentiment is cooling. The latest YouGov/Economist polling shows that 69 percent of conservatives now say the U.S. is on the right track, down from 75 percent in May.
It comes as Trump has seen his approval ratings dip to a second-term low nationwide.
That includes the most recent Big Data Poll survey, conducted July 12 to 14, which showed 48 percent of voters approving of Trump’s performance, while 49 percent disapproved.
The downward trend contrasts with earlier in the year. In May, Big Data Poll had Trump narrowly above water, with 48 percent of respondents approving and 47 percent disapproving. That figure was already a notable drop from January, shortly after Trump returned to office, when the pollster recorded one of his strongest ratings: 56 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval, a net positive of 19 percentage points.
That broader decline is mirrored in other major polling. Newsweek’s approval tracker currently places Trump at a net minus 10 rating, with 44 percent of Americans approving and 54 percent disapproving. It is one of his lowest net approval scores in recent weeks. The latest Atlas Intel survey, conducted between July 13 and 18 among 1,935 respondents, paints a similar picture: Trump’s approval rating has dipped to 44 percent, down from 45 percent last month, while disapproval has ticked up to 55 percent. That results in a net rating of minus 11—his worst showing of the term in that poll.
The sharpest drop comes from YouGov/CBS News polling conducted between July 16 and 18, which shows Trump’s approval at just 42 percent, with 58 percent disapproving—a net rating of minus 16. That figure represents the president’s lowest approval level recorded in any national poll so far in his second term.
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