A cluster of thunderstorms that meteorologists call a tropical disturbance was moving west across the far northern Gulf on Thursday, delivering scattered heavy rainfall over the central Gulf Coast. Rain was expected to continue into Friday.
Southern Louisiana falls within the bull’s-eye of the storm activity, though New Orleans is likely to be spared from the heaviest rainfall.
“It doesn’t appear to be a huge impact to New Orleans, but this could change as sometimes forecasting the exact place of an individual thunderstorm can be difficult,” said Bob Oravec, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather Service.
Key Things to Know
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The storms are expected to drift north into southern Louisiana on Thursday evening. The National Hurricane Center said that chances were low that they would intensify into a tropical depression.
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Regardless, there’s a chance for heavy rain in southern areas of Alabama, Mississippi and especially Louisiana in the coming days, with the rain most likely peaking on Thursday, continuing into Friday and lingering into Saturday.
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Flood watches are in effect for southern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi. By Thursday afternoon, more localized flash flood warnings had been issued. While a flood watch means that conditions are favorable for flash flooding, a flood warning means that flooding is imminent or already happening.
A tropical disturbance is often the first stage in a tropical storm, but this system is not expected to intensify enough to become a named storm, and it’s unlikely to even become a tropical depression.
“It’s just going to be a rain producer,” Mr. Oravec said. “There’s not much wind with it.”
The disturbance brought heavy rainfall to parts of southern and Central Florida this week as it moved west. “It moved onshore right near St. Augustine,” said Derrick Weitlich, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Melbourne, Fla.
While many locations across Central and South Florida picked up one to four inches of rain on Monday and Tuesday, there were other locations with significantly higher amounts. A gauge in Plant City, a town near Tampa, recorded just over nine inches of rain on Monday.
On Thursday, the storm activity will bring a slight risk of heavy rain and flooding to an area that stretches from the far western Florida Panhandle along the Gulf Coast to the Texas border, but southern Louisiana is expected to receive the most rain.
The chance for excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding was highest west of the Mississippi River and New Orleans, in Lafayette and the lower Atchafalaya Basin.
Just before 1 p.m. Central time, the basin had already received an estimated five to 10 inches of rain, according to Mike Efferson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office that serves the New Orleans area.
The threat of flooding is lower in New Orleans, though still a concern. “The majority of the heavy rain so far has been west and south of New Orleans,” Mr. Efferson said.
Rain chances are expected to continue across Alabama, Mississippi and, particularly, Louisiana on Friday, potentially lingering into Saturday.
By Friday night, most locations across southern Louisiana will very likely have picked up three to six inches of rain, with some locations recording over 10 inches.
Amy Graff is a Times reporter covering weather, wildfires and earthquakes.
The post Storms Crawling Along the Gulf Coast Are Raising the Risk of Flooding appeared first on New York Times.
