Even as Californians protest the crude and often brutal deportation tactics employed by President Trump’s ICE and Homeland Security agents, we’re giving too little thought to how our state, and the nation, is failing the very immigrant community we want to protect.
In the past, particularly in the last century, when the U.S. economy, and California’s, was growing at a fast rate, loosely controlled immigration filled critical needs and, over time, moved many immigrants into an increasingly diverse middle class. But now newcomers are getting stuck. According to new findings from USC and University of California researchers, immigrants account for nearly a quarter of the U.S. population living in poverty, up from 14% three decades ago.
The immigrant poverty rate fluctuates, but it has been rising in recent years, especially since the pandemic. In 2024, 22.4% of all immigrants and 28.4% of non-citizen immigrants, including the undocumented, were poor, the highest rates since 2008.
As well, welfare dependency is more pronounced among immigrants than the native born. A 2023 analysis of census data showed that 54% of households headed by naturalized citizens, legal residents and the undocumented use one or more welfare programs versus 39% of U.S.-born households.
In California, the overall situation is only slightly better. A 2023 report from the Public Policy Institute of California put the poverty rate for all foreign-born residents at 17.6%, compared to 11.5% for those born here. For unauthorized immigrants, however, the rate was even higher than the national figure: 29.6%. Undocumented households, notes a separate USC study, have consistently had the lowest median household income in L.A. — $46,500, compared to $75,000 among all Angelenos in 2024.
The grim statistics reflect a decline starting in the 1980s in blue-collar industries in California, which traditionally offered upward mobility to immigrants. Unionization in the immigrant-heavy hospitality industry has helped lift some families, but those gains may lead to fewer jobs as employers look to rein in costs, potentially by automating some services. And immigration itself, especially mass immigration, puts downward pressure on many of the jobs newcomers fill — in agriculture, for example, or construction.
The dearth of jobs that support families has pushed California toward a model that Michael Lind, a Texas-based historian and author, describes as the “low wage/high welfare model.”
The fiscal implications are severe. The president has signed executive orders denying federal funds to sanctuary cities, funds that would shore up city and state budgets for policing, education and many other services affected by immigration. Those orders have been stymied in the courts, although Trump is sure to try again. At the same time, the budget the president signed into law on July 4 boosts funds for border enforcement but cuts back such things as medical services for non-citizens, even for those who are here legally.
This will cause particular distress in deep blue states. California’s current budget shortfall has forced Trump “resistance” leader Gov. Gavin Newsom to scale back healthcare for the undocumented, which is also occurring in other progressive hotbeds such as Washington state, Illinois and Minnesota.
The simple truth is that the low wage/high welfare economy dependent on illegal immigration isn’t sustainable. Economic reality suggests we need a commonsense policy to restrict new migration and to focus on policies that can allow current immigrants — especially those deeply embedded in our communities and those with useful skills — to enjoy the success of previous generations.
What would a commonsense policy look like? It would secure the border, which the Trump administration is already doing, and shift immigration priorities away from family reunion and more toward attracting those who can contribute to an increasingly complex economy. Deportations should prioritize convicted criminals and members of criminal gangs, whose presence is hardly welcomed by most immigrants.
Law-abiding immigrants who are here without authorization should be offered a ticket home or a chance to register for legal status based on a clean record, paying taxes and steady employment. In addition we need to consider a new Bracero Program, which allowed guest workers to come to the U.S. legally without their families in the mid-20th century. Even President Trump has been forced to acknowledge that low-wage immigrant labor is difficult to replace in some sectors.
This kind of immigration reform has eluded Congress for decades, but a clear-eyed assessment shows that merely welcoming newcomers willy-nilly won’t pay off for most migrants or for California. A large pool of undocumented labor is the exact opposite of what is needed to nurture a strong and sustainable economy. If you are protesting against ICE raids and immigrant bashing, you should also be protesting for remaking U.S. immigration according to economic fundamentals. The prospect of a better life should be available to us all.
Joel Kotkin is a contributing writer to Opinion, the presidential fellow for urban futures at Chapman University and senior research fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas, Austin.
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