Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring a disturbance off the U.S. Coast that they say has a 30 percent chance of developing into a cyclone this week.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems so far in 2025: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal.
Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina earlier this month, with up to nine inches of rain falling within 24 hours in some parts of the state.
What To Know
The NHC said on Monday a low-pressure system positioned off the northern Florida Atlantic coast was generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and nearby Atlantic waters.
This system is expected to track westward across Florida over the next day or so, reaching the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday, the agency said.
“Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to support some gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week,” the NHC said. “Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.”
The NHC said the disturbance had a 10 percent chance of formation over the next 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance of formation over the next seven days.
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for 2025.
The agency said it expected between 13 and 19 named storms this year. Of these, between six and 10 would be hurricanes, it said, with three to five major hurricanes, adding it had a “70 percent confidence in these ranges.”
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Jake Lambright said on X, Monday: “FIRST ALERT: The National Hurricane Center maintains a LOW chance for tropical development; however, they have raised the probabilities. There is a 10% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hrs & a 30% chance over the next seven days.”
Meteorologist Kristin Walla said on X, Sunday: “The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor an area of interest in the northeastern Gulf. It has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.
“This will be something for us to calmly watch but not necessarily worry about over the coming days.”
What Happens Next
Forecasters will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as the system develops.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
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