Kerr County, Texas, could again see heavy rain and flooding this weekend, only a week after severe thunderstorms unleashed deadly flash flooding there and in central parts of the state.
The county, where the highest number of deaths occurred in the catastrophic July 4 event, was under a flood watch on Saturday that is in effect until 7 p.m. local time on Sunday.
The watch includes the Hill Country, the southern Edwards Plateau and the Interstate 35 corridor connecting Austin and San Antonio. Up to five million people fall under the watch areas, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters said it was difficult to pinpoint where the most intense thunderstorms might break out, but all areas are at risk of getting one to three inches of rain, with some isolated spots getting up to six inches.
“We’re already seeing a few showers along the I-35 corridor,” Eric Platt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office that serves Austin and San Antonio, said on Saturday. “It hasn’t quite made it to the Hill Country, but as the day progresses we think we’ll see more coverage of storms.”
The rainfall is not expected to be as extreme as it was on July 4, but with the ground fully saturated from the recent torrential downpours, even small amounts of rain can bring flash flooding, particularly in the Hill Country.
That region is often referred to as “flash flood alley” because rainfall gets funneled through the hilly terrain and canyons into the valleys.
The chance of heavy rain returns to Central Texas and the Hill Country as a cold front drops from the northern Plains into the southern Plains with moisture flowing in from the Gulf.
On Saturday, this system will bring a threat of thunderstorms and heavy rain across a vast area from eastern New Mexico and across portions of Texas and Oklahoma.
The risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding is slight, a level 2 out of 4, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
In Central Texas, the chance for rain will increase Saturday afternoon and continue through the evening and into Sunday.
Preliminary forecasts showed that the rain will likely be focused over the Hill Country, including Kerr County, the Edwards Plateau, the Austin metro area and Val Verde County.
“We’ll have to watch it pretty carefully,” Mr. Platt said. “With these types of situations, the rainfall is hit or miss. The atmosphere is going to have some moisture to work with, and the storms will be slow-moving.”
To the northwest of Hill Country in West-Central Texas near San Angelo and Abilene, a flood watch was also issued for Saturday afternoon until Sunday afternoon.
Seth Nagle, a meteorologist with the Weather Service office in this area, said he was particularly concerned about a risk for flash flooding in Tom Green County and San Angelo.
Some locations in this area got up to 15 inches of rain within six hours on July 4.
“We already have some showers and thunderstorms in our area with rainfall rates up to two inches per hour,” Mr. Nagle said on Saturday. “We’re expecting most locations to see about two to five inches this weekend, with isolated amounts higher than that.”
This weekend’s weather is not expected to be as extreme as it was on July 4. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere is less than it was last week when levels were record-breaking in some places.
“This one is going to still be a heavy rain threat, not something to sneeze at, but in terms of magnitude, we’re not expecting what we saw last week,” said Scott Kleebauer, a forecaster with the Weather Prediction Center.
Amy Graff is a Times reporter covering weather, wildfires and earthquakes.
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