Donald Trump’s standing with America’s middle-income earners has taken a sharp hit, with new polling showing that recent gains in approval among this crucial voting bloc have reversed course.
Trump made inroads with middle-class voters in the 2024 election, who previously broke for the Democrats by around 56 percent in 2020, with 42 percent of voters on incomes between $50,000-$100,000 voting for Trump.
But by 2024, that had reversed almost completely, with middle-class voters breaking for Trump by 52 percent and 46 percent choosing the Democrats.
However, polling now suggests Trump’s support among middle class voters may be crumbling.
According to the latest YouGov/Economist polling, conducted between July 4-7 among 1,528 adults, net support for Trump among adults earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year—a key slice of the middle class—has fallen to a low of -14 points.
In May, 44 percent of middle-income respondents approved of Trump’s job performance while 52 percent disapproved, giving him a net rating of -8 points. By June, that gap had narrowed significantly, with approval ticking up to 49 percent and disapproval dropping to 48 percent, bringing his net approval to just -1 point—the best level he’d seen with this group in months.
But that momentum has now evaporated. In the latest YouGov/Economist poll only 42 percent of Americans in the $50,000—$100,000 income bracket approve of Trump, while 56 percent disapprove—pushing his net approval among the middle class back down to -14 points.
Backlash Over Economic Policies
The decline in Trump’s middle-class support comes as he faces intensifying criticism over his newly signed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which opponents argue could squeeze working families by restricting safety net programs and reshaping tax and spending priorities.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the legislation would add $3.4 trillion to federal deficits over the next decade—a figure Republicans and the White House dispute—while slashing about $1.1 trillion in health care spending and causing 11.8 million people to lose Medicaid coverage over the same period.
Beyond spending cuts, the bill also includes tax changes. It raises the cap on the state and local tax deduction from $10,000 to $40,000, and aims to make key parts of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent—including extending lower tax rates and increasing standard deductions by $1,000 for individuals and $2,000 for married couples until 2028.
Trump has long argued these tax cuts spur economic growth, but critics say they primarily benefit the wealthy while adding to the federal debt—an issue now resurfacing as middle-class voters reassess the trade-offs of his economic policies.
Overall, only 38 percent of middle-income earners approve of the sweeping bill, while 54 percent disapprove, according to the same poll. Strong majorities also want to protect the programs the bill puts at risk: 70 percent say Medicaid funding should either increase or stay the same, while just 22 percent support cuts or elimination. Similarly, 80 percent want to maintain or expand Medicare, and 84 percent oppose any cuts to Social Security.
Food assistance is also a flashpoint, with 65 percent of middle-class respondents saying SNAP benefits should stay the same or grow, compared to 27 percent who back reductions. Meanwhile, more than half—58 percent—believe the new budget will drive the federal deficit higher, not lower.
When asked whether Trump’s budget will help or hurt the average American, only 32 percent say it will help, while 55 percent believe it will do more harm than good. The numbers are just as stark when voters consider their own households: just 29 percent think they and their families will benefit, while 44 percent expect to be worse off.
Lingering Economic Anxiety
Beyond the budget, broader economic sentiment among this key slice of the electorate is pessimistic. Just 34 percent of middle class voters believe the economy is growing, while more—43 percent—approve of Trump’s handling of the economy compared to 52 percent who disapprove.
It is not the first time polls have reflected the economic anxiety of middle voters during Trump’s second term.
In March, analysis of polling by Newsweek showed that Trump’s popularity was declining among middle class voters amid dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy.
And in June, polls showed the same trend after Trump imposed his “Liberation Day” tariffs, which shook financial markets and stoked fears of rising inflation and an impending recession.
Polls now show that middle-class voters appear to be growing more cautious about the risk of a recession, but they also show they are slightly less convinced the economy is already in one.
Back in early May, when The Economist/YouGov poll asked this group how likely they thought a recession was in the next twelve months, only 16 percent said it was “somewhat likely” and just 5 percent said it was “very likely.” At the same time, a sizable share—35 percent—said they believed the country was already in a recession. Another 13 percent were unsure what to think, reflecting a sense of uncertainty about where the economy was heading.
Fast-forward to early July, and the mood among these middle-income voters has shifted in subtle but important ways. The share who now say a recession is “somewhat likely” has jumped eight points to 24 percent, suggesting that more people in the middle class are bracing for a possible downturn in the year ahead. The portion who see a recession as “very likely” dipped slightly to 4 percent, while those saying it’s “not very likely” nudged up from 19 percent to 22 percent—a sign that some remain relatively optimistic about the outlook.
Meanwhile, the number of middle-income earners who say the country is already in a recession fell slightly to 32 percent, down from 35 percent two months ago. The share who say they are “not sure” also dropped noticeably, from 13 percent to just 9 percent—indicating that more people in this income bracket have made up their minds about where things stand.
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