The Trump-Netanyahu bromance is back and will be on full display when the Israeli prime minister visits the White House on Monday. Benjamin Netanyahu wants a celebratory high-five with U.S. President Donald Trump to commemorate the joint attacks against Iran that set back the Iranian nuclear program. Trump will be more than happy to host the festivities, provided the spotlight shines on him for his decision to bomb and “obliterate” the fortified Fordow enrichment facility. What could go wrong, an observer is left to wonder?
Indeed, there are indications of even more positive outcomes to celebrate, as secret Israeli-Syrian talks might yield an announcement about security coordination with the regime of Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. To be sure, this would fall far short of normalization—an almost-impossible outcome to imagine in view of Israel’s determination to retain the Golan Heights in perpetuity—but it’s still a stunning achievement when talking about implacable foes who have fought repeated wars over the decades. In anticipation of progress on this front, Trump has already canceled some of the sanctions that the United States had imposed on Syria under the previous regime.
Trump has said that Netanyahu has accepted a 60-day cease-fire/hostage accord, which, if true, will only draw the Netanyahu and Trump relationship closer. This latest deal, if it moves forward, would not end the war in Gaza—which Netanyahu cannot do if he wants to keep his extreme right-wing coalition intact—but it would provide some respite to the daily killing and humanitarian distress.
So, a limited cease-fire would buy Netanyahu time and also provide Trump something to celebrate as another diplomatic achievement. Trump has taken the unprecedented step of directly interfering in the Israeli judicial process by calling for Netanyahu’s criminal trial to be “cancelled immediately.” Trump’s bluster has prompted apparently serious conversations in Israel about a plea deal that would end Netanyahu’s legal peril. The Israeli leader is thus firmly in Trump’s debt.
So, again, what could go wrong, and why would this visit not be a reason to celebrate American and Israeli power? Amid all the celebratory champagne glasses on Monday lies an unhappy possibility, especially for Netanyahu—namely, Trump’s mercurial decision-making and his propensity to shift gears without warning if things do not go his way. Of all the presidents we’ve served, Trump stands alone as the one who has both sidelined Israel when it wasn’t convenient and made Israel central to his aims when it was. In the first six months of his administration, Trump has opened direct negotiations with Hamas without Israel’s knowledge; cut a bilateral cease-fire with the Houthis that Israel learned about after the fact; lifted sanctions on the Syrian government over Israel’s objections; and negotiated with Iran—including floating the prospect of some Iranian enrichment. And his repeated Truth Social posts showing impatience over Israel’s (and Hamas’s) unwillingness to end the fighting in Gaza increased the daylight between the two allies.
And yet, when he saw advantage, Trump not only acquiesced to, if not supported, Israel’s military strikes against Iran and participated in the ruse to fool Iran about when the attack might occur, he was the first U.S. president to carry out a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities—something Israel had long sought.
Trump has no core principles, no strategy, and no patience. He thus enjoys the flexibility to pivot and turn on the proverbial dime, leading to significant unpredictability. He and Netanyahu are equally adept at the art of the con, but the difference is Netanyahu sits on a fractious coalition while Trump presides over a cowering base within MAGA and the Republican Party, protected by Supreme Court justices who seem unbothered by the increasing executive overreach of the president. So, if Trump does not get his way—for example, if Netanyahu later balks at the terms of the cease-fire or if he refuses to increase substantially the amount of humanitarian assistance flowing into Gaza—Trump could turn on him, with as much vigor as the support he has offered this week.
Even Trump’s fiercest critics hope that the visit will produce progress on a cease-fire/hostage deal, agreement to alleviate the extraordinary human suffering in Gaza, and possibly some good news on Israeli-Syrian relations. But those critics, and the majority of us who want to see something more than blustery Truth Social posts and venomous attacks on political foes, hope that Trump can see his way to a strategy that extends beyond his fickle preferences.
This means a serious plan for the day after in Gaza that includes not only the immediate requirements of security, governance, and reconstruction, but also a pathway to bringing Israelis and Palestinians to a point where they can start talking again about a future other than occupation and violence. It means a diplomatic game plan that brings Iran back to the table for serious negotiations. And perhaps most important, it means having a regional strategy that moves beyond the situational and the challenge de jour. We have no illusions that a president who moves from issue to issue like the caroming ball in a pinball machine is up to that task. But without real leadership from him and in the region, none of this can work.
The region has been scrambled in the last 22 months through Israeli and American military power in ways it has never been before. Now, there is an acute need for something we have not seen and may not see—skillful diplomacy by a patient and strategic president to fashion new pathways toward a better future out of the region’s current misery and conflict.
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