A tropical system and the heavy rains accompanying it could lead to flash flooding across Florida and other parts of the coastal Southeast this weekend.
Key Things to Know:
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Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said there is a 60 percent chance that the system will organize into a tropical depression in the next few days somewhere off the coast of Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas.
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As of Thursday morning, forecasters said the system was not likely to grow strong enough to become a tropical storm. If it did, it would become Tropical Storm Chantal, the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Regardless of whether that happens, parts of Florida should expect to see prolonged rainy conditions, according to the forecasters at the Tampa Bay office of the National Weather Service. The rain began on Wednesday and is expected to last through the weekend, with totals most likely reaching three to five inches across the central west coast of the Florida Peninsula by the time it ends.
It was still uncertain how much rain might fall on the east coast of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
Those forecast details will be heavily dependent on the position, strength and timing of the potential storm system, according to forecasters at the Weather Service office in Charleston, S.C. So far, they have predicted isolated thunderstorms, typical for this time of year. But if a depression or tropical storm were to develop, they said, there would most likely be much more rain.
The Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. After a slow start, there have been two tropical storms so far: Andrea, which formed on June 24 and dissipated a day later, and Barry, which formed in the Gulf on Sunday just off Mexico’s coast before making landfall that night.
An Above-Average Hurricane Season
In May, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that this year would be an above-average hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms. Typically, the most destructive storms come later in the summer.
Experts think it is probable that a major hurricane will make landfall in the United States this season. Climate experts have warned that intense storms like these are more likely to occur, with more rapid intensification likely in a warming world.
Last year was also one of the most costly for hurricanes in the United States. Hurricanes Helene and Milton combined caused about $113 billion in damage and more than 250 deaths. This May, the Trump administration said it would no longer maintain a database of so-called billion-dollar disasters.
The Trump administration has slashed the number of employees at many of the agencies traditionally responsible for planning for and responding to natural disasters, including NOAA, the Weather Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Climate change is also affecting the amount of rain that storms can produce. In a warming world, the air can hold more moisture, which means a named storm can hold and produce more rainfall, as Hurricane Harvey did in Texas in 2017, when some areas received more than 40 inches of rain in less than 48 hours.
Researchers have also found that storms have slowed down, staying over areas for more extended periods, over the past few decades.
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times who forecasts and covers extreme weather.
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