On Tuesday, the White House confirmed that it has halted critical weapons deliveries to Ukraine, even though Ukraine remains under relentless Russian attack. This will only embolden Russia to continue its war, and make a just peace less likely.
For months, President Trump has played a cynical game. In front of the press, he threatens to impose new sanctions on the Russian economy. In private, he never follows through. He publicly suggests he might increase support for Ukraine; in fact, only last week, Mr. Trump said he would “see if we can make” additional air defense missiles available for the Ukrainian military. But behind the scenes he is halting supplies that were already committed to Ukraine.
All of this suggests that Mr. Trump is not willing to pressure Russia to end this war. Instead, he is folding and abandoning Ukraine.
The United States provides Ukraine with military aid through two main sources. Presidential drawdown packages are taken from U.S. military stockpiles, which are replenished with newer kits, a process that ultimately helps modernize the military. And the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative provides funds to procure materiel directly from U.S. defense manufacturers.
In his final months in office, President Joe Biden authorized an additional $1.25 billion drawdown package and instructed the Pentagon to place all remaining U.S.A.I. dollars on contract. He also imposed new sanctions on the Russian oil sector and worked with the Group of 7 to secure a loan of $50 billion for Ukraine from the proceeds of Russian sovereign assets.
This summer, the drawdown deliveries that Mr. Biden authorized will run out. Mr. Trump has not announced any additional support packages, and now the Trump administration has paused outstanding security assistance deliveries to Ukraine, which were slated to provide the Ukrainian military with air defense missiles, rockets, artillery and other vital support well into next year.
The White House suggests it is doing this because of concerns about U.S. military readiness. That explanation doesn’t stand up to scrutiny: U.S.A.I. deliveries — the main target of the pause — are sourced from procurement contracts, not from the Pentagon’s stockpiles, and are distinct from orders for the U.S. military. In this way, U.S.A.I. shipments are not unlike U.S. defense exports to any other country in the world. As for the limited remaining drawdown shipments, the Department of Defense has been using congressional funding to replace what it sends with newer munitions, which actually strengthens the U.S. military.
The administration may not want to say it, but the reality appears to be that the president is winding down U.S. security assistance to Ukraine.
If that holds, it makes no strategic sense. Mr. Trump says he wants to facilitate a cease-fire. So far, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has agreed to this proposal, but President Vladimir Putin of Russia has refused. Why? Because Mr. Putin believes that time is on his side. He sees that American support for Ukraine is declining, so he expects his battlefield position to improve the longer the war goes on.
The Russian government knows that Ukraine is dependent upon the United States for air defense missiles and other critical capabilities. That’s why the Russian military has launched waves of missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities in recent weeks. Mr. Putin does not just want to wear down Ukrainian stockpiles; he also wants to test America’s response.
To shift Mr. Putin’s calculus and achieve a sustained cease-fire, the United States should be applying more pressure on Russia, not less. We should be providing more support to Ukraine, not less.
The tragedy of Mr. Trump’s approach is that it is still possible for Ukraine to achieve a just end to this war — with our help. The Ukrainian military is a fierce fighting force that has imposed extraordinary costs on the Russian side. The Ukrainian defense industrial base is producing hundreds of thousands of lethal drones every month. The Russian economy is under pressure at a time when oil prices are declining. If the United States were to surge military aid to Ukraine and tighten sanctions on Russia, Ukraine’s position at the bargaining table would be considerably stronger.
If Mr. Trump seeks to end this war on any terms — even by the subjugation of Ukraine — then he should continue his current policy of getting slow-walked in peace talks by Mr. Putin while curtailing aid to Kyiv. If he wants a different and better outcome, as he should, he has to adjust course through three important steps.
First, Ukraine will continue to need arms that only we produce, such as air defense and HIMARS rockets. The administration should release all outstanding drawdown and U.S.A.I. deliveries for Ukraine, which Ukraine needs to defend itself.
If Mr. Trump is unwilling to go further and authorize additional drawdown packages for Ukraine, the White House should embrace proposals to permit European allies to purchase critical capabilities for Ukraine from the Department of Defense. This approach would generate revenue for the United States while ensuring continued weapons flows to Kyiv.
As a starting point, European leaders could work with the White House to buy Patriot missiles and other air defense interceptors for Ukraine as they are produced. If this works, European and U.S. officials could broaden the arrangement to cover a wider range of U.S. defense equipment, which would signal to Mr. Putin that external security assistance to Ukraine will not simply dry up with time.
Second, the United States should request that the European Union seize the approximately $300 billion in immobilized Russian sovereign assets that are held in Europe. By taking this step, European leaders could obtain a sustainable source of assistance for Ukraine — which could be used to procure weapons from the United States and elsewhere — finance Ukraine’s defense industrial base and maintain the country’s economic stability.
Third, Mr. Trump should follow through on his threats to intensify sanctions against the Russian energy sector, which would build on the sanctions announced last year and further pressure Mr. Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations. Given the state of the oil market, this option is more powerful now than it was at earlier points in the war.
By taking these steps, the United States could strengthen Ukraine’s position and weaken Russia’s without burdening U.S. taxpayers. Ukraine would continue to receive U.S. weapons and would have the long-term backing of $300 billion in support, and the Russian economy would be under increased pressure.
Mr. Trump has tried to frame the debate over the Russia-Ukraine war as a choice between peace and endless fighting. But the real choice is between a true peace reached by supporting Ukraine in effective negotiations and a false peace reached by implicitly surrendering to Mr. Putin.
Despite everything, the path to a true peace is still open. Mr. Trump should take it.
Jake Sullivan was the U.S. national security adviser from 2021 to 2025.
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