From heat and severe storms to flash floods, conditions across the United States as July 4 approaches will vary widely.
Whether you’re planning to travel or enjoy outdoor festivities like fireworks, here’s what you can expect heading into the holiday weekend.
The Northeast: ‘Ideal Conditions’ on July 4
In the days before the holiday, the Northeast has contended with some unsettled weather because of a cold front moving through the region.
Drier conditions are expected there on Wednesday as the front clears, but as it moves toward parts of the Mid-Atlantic, more showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash floods, especially over eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina.
The Weather Prediction Center has forecast rainfall totals of three to five inches in some places. Travel could be affected, and outdoor plans may need a backup.
Once the front passes, drier conditions are on the horizon. Bryan Jackson, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, said “ideal conditions” were expected for July 4 in the Northeast. After a slight temperature dip from Wednesday through Friday, things will warm back up over the weekend.
“Mid-80s for Friday the Fourth itself,” he said. “But then heat comes in from the Ohio Valley” on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. “So kind of a low-end heat wave starting over the weekend.”
A few isolated showers remain possible, but overall, the region can expect a dry and pleasant Independence Day and weekend.
The South: Rain Is Likely
The South, and especially Florida, will be dealing with wet and stormy weather this week. The same cold front leaving the Northeast will stall across the southern states, bringing repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms.
There is some risk of flash flooding through Thursday for parts of Alabama, Georgia and Florida. That risk also stretches into the Carolinas, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland and Washington, D.C.
From Thursday into Sunday, the flood threat becomes concentrated in Florida, particularly the Gulf Coast.
Thunderstorms are likely across the region on July 4, especially during the afternoon and evening.
“For fireworks and that sort of thing, there’s potential for it to be disruptive in portions of the Florida Peninsula,” Mr. Jackson said.
He also noted that a tropical system might be forming in the region.
The National Hurricane Center gave it a low chance of developing into a tropical storm, but if a system were to become organized, it could form anywhere from the west coast of Florida, near Tampa, to the Atlantic, off Charleston, S.C. Most models do not show that it will intensify much, and the biggest concern is likely to be heavy rainfall.
But a low chance is still a chance, forecasters warned.
Severe Weather in the Plains and the Midwest
These areas are likely to see the most active, and potentially the most severe, weather before the holiday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the Dakotas down through Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa and into parts of Missouri and Illinois. These storms could produce damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain, with the potential for flash flooding. Some storms could also stretch southward into central Oklahoma and Texas.
For July 4, the outlook is mixed. Some areas may experience a temporary lull in activity, but storms are expected in others.
“Those could be disruptive for Friday evening events,” Mr. Jackson said, referring to storms that are likely to occur from Kansas City northward into Minnesota, including Omaha and Des Moines. He added that while storms would continue into the weekend, they were likely to be less severe.
The region will also be heating up.
“We’re getting up to perhaps 100 degrees in places,” Mr. Jackson said.
The West: Mostly Calm, With Exceptions
The West will be relatively quieter, though not entirely free of weather concerns.
In the middle of the week, a system pushing inland from the ocean will bring showers and a few thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. Some storms may be dry, which — combined with dry vegetation — raises the risk of fire weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Washington and Oregon under elevated fire danger through Thursday afternoon. By Friday, fire concerns will shift to northeast California, Nevada and Utah.
On Thursday, a monsoon in the Southwest will pull in moisture from Hurricane Flossie in the Pacific, and the former Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf, which will raise the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of Arizona, New Mexico and West Texas during the day.
By July 4, most of the West should enjoy dry and comfortable weather. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms, in the low to mid-80s along the coast and typical triple-digit heat across the Southwest.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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