Zohran Mamdani’s rapid rise from upstart mayoral hopeful to likely winner of the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City was propelled by the simple message that the city was too expensive — and that he had plans that would fix it.
Mr. Mamdani’s singular focus on the city’s affordability crisis resonated, especially with young voters. They embraced his populist promises to make bus service free, freeze rents on stabilized apartments, build city-owned grocery stores and offer free early child care.
But whether his campaign promises can become reality is an open question — and important parts of Mr. Mamdani’s platform are not solely in a mayor’s control.
While some of his left-leaning policy ideas are not entirely new — rents have been frozen before, for example — others would represent a dramatic reimagining of city government.
And much of Mr. Mamdani’s agenda relies in large measure on increasing revenue through taxes on businesses and the wealthy — part of an overarching vision to rethink how the city funds expanded social programs. Along with raising income taxes, he has pledged to shift the property tax burden “from the outer boroughs to more expensive homes in richer and whiter neighborhoods,” according to his campaign website.
Already, Mr. Mamdani’s plans, in line with his democratic socialist political affiliation, have prompted intense backlash from business leaders who say he poses a danger to New York’s economy. In private meetings, power brokers are discussing how to mount a strong challenge to Mr. Mamdani in the November general election.
But the obstacles are not just political. To accomplish most of what he has promised, he will have to combat powerful headwinds from Albany and Washington that threaten to stymie his ambitious agenda.
Raising Revenue
Mr. Mamdani faces significant roadblocks in his effort to raise taxes. The nature of Albany’s budget process gives immense leverage to Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is up for re-election next year and has promised no increases in state income taxes.
Mr. Mamdani is proposing a new income tax of 2 percent on residents making more than a $1 million a year, which he estimates would bring in about $4 billion year. He also wants the state to sign off on an increase of the top corporate tax rate to 11.5 percent, up from 7.25 percent now. This would generate an extra $5 billion a year, according to his campaign.
In 2021, the state raised personal income taxes on millionaires, which would make New York City’s top earners pay the nation’s highest rates. It also increased income taxes on corporations.
Raising those taxes further would not only need the approval of the State Legislature but also the signature of the governor.
On Thursday, the governor stressed that she wanted to have a positive relationship with the next mayor, whoever that is — but reiterated that raising taxes was a nonstarter.
“I’m focused on affordability,” she said at a news conference, “and raising taxes on anyone does not accomplish that.”
Budget analysts have said that increasing taxes could burden the New York economy by making the city less attractive to employers.
“We are the highest taxing state and locality in the nation,” said Andrew Rein, president of the nonpartisan Citizens Budget Commission, adding that “competition is fierce for residents and businesses right now.”
There are also cuts looming from the Trump administration, which has already clawed back hundreds of millions in federal funds to care for migrants and for natural disaster prevention, among other things. Last fiscal year, the federal government sent about $100 billion to the state for a range of efforts, including school aid and infrastructure.
As a result, lawmakers say that to fill the holes left in their budgets, there will have to be a mix of increased taxes and tough choices — meaning money for Mr. Mamdani’s agenda might not be available.
In an interview, Brad Hoylman-Sigal, a state senator who was poised to win the Democratic nomination for Manhattan borough president, recalled past failed efforts to tax everything from pieds-à-terre to corporations, even though they had some lawmakers’ support.
But, he added, if the mayor of New York City were to travel to Albany and articulate a strong case for raising taxes to fulfill his agenda, they could convince the Legislature to support such a move.
“This will be a shift,” he said. “I certainly think that the governor is interested in issues around child care and affordability, but Mamdani’s big ticket items for the most part will need her blessing.”
Housing
A major pillar of Mr. Mamdani’s economic plan is housing: He wants to build 200,000 units of affordable housing and freeze rent on the city’s nearly one million rent-stabilized apartments.
But to build, he has said the city will have to borrow $70 billion, exceeding its debt limit by some $30 billion. Going over the limit would require state approval.
Freezing rent, on the other hand, is relatively straightforward and has precedent. But there are consequences.
Mayors cannot freeze rent on their own, but they do appoint the nine members on the Rent Guidelines Board, which sets rents on the city’s rent-stabilized units.
David Reiss, who served on the board under Mr. de Blasio, said that before it voted, members generally considered the overall state of housing in the city, including affordability, landlord expenses and economic conditions.
He said that members could decide that affordability was the most important factor and vote to freeze rents, as they did in 2015, 2016 and 2020.
“A rent freeze would meet the needs of a lot of people who are having a hard time keeping up with their rent,” Mr. Reiss said, “but it’s an unsustainable operation.”
Landlords, including those whose buildings have a large majority of rent-stabilized units, are increasingly saying that they are not collecting enough rent to maintain units.
“Are we going to be pushing a distinct portion of the housing market into great distress because their expenses are outstripping their income?” Mr. Reiss said.
Child Care
After housing, child care has emerged as the second most salient issue in the affordability crisis and a reason many families leave the city. More than half of New York City families with children age 4 or under cannot afford child care, according to surveys by the Robin Hood Foundation.
Mr. Mamdani says the city should “implement free child care for every New Yorker aged 6 weeks to 5 years.” He has offered few details on how to execute this vision, but his aides estimate its cost at between $5 billion and $8 billion.
Like Mr. Mamdani’s rent freeze proposal, free child care has its roots in the de Blasio administration. Free prekindergarten for every 4-year-old in the city was a signature achievement of his administration.
Under Mayor Eric Adams, universal prekindergarten and a promised expansion of the program to 3-year-olds has been hampered by cuts.
This is an issue that Mr. Mamdani and Ms. Hochul are in some agreement. This year, the governor pushed for a large increase in the state’s child tax credit and has nearly doubled funding for state subsidized child care programs to about $2 billion.
Lauren Melodia, the director of economic and fiscal policy at the Center for New York City Affairs at the New School, said that “child care is a huge cost burden to families, and it’s probably easier to implement universal child care than fix the housing crisis.”
Free Buses
New York City’s bus system serves more than 1.1 million riders every day. Mr. Mamdani wants to make their trips free.
His plan builds on his pilot program included in the 2023 state budget that made five bus lines — one in each borough — free for one year. Ridership increased on the lines, mostly among existing riders who traveled more often, according to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, a state agency that operates the buses.
That nine-month pilot program cost $12 million. Offering free rides on all 327 bus routes is estimated to cost around $700 million annually, Mr. Mamdani has said. Who would bear the burden of those costs — the M.T.A. or the city — would be subject to negotiation. In April, Albany approved $68 billion for the authority’s capital plan in the state budget, but the governor said the M.T.A. still had to find $3 billion in savings.
Many New Yorkers already ride the bus for free, illegally, by not paying the fare. Forty-four percent of riders failed to pay in the first quarter of this year.
“If your goal is helping with affordability, there are smarter ways to do that than this,” said Jon Kaufman, the authority’s chief of strategic initiatives, at a public meeting last year.
Grocery Stores
To address rising food prices, Mr. Mamdani has proposed creating five city-owned grocery stores, which would buy and sell items at wholesale prices. One store would be placed in each borough, either in a city-owned building or built on city land, thus eliminating the cost of rent.
New Yorkers spend about 12 percent of their overall budget on food, according to the New York State comptroller. But those costs have jumped by more than 50 percent in the last decade, the office said.
James Parrott, a former chief economist for New York City, said Mr. Mamdani’s plan was “certainly doable.” He noted that there were other ways to offer lower-cost groceries, including through food cooperatives, whose labor costs and markup on items are usually lower than at supermarkets.
An additional five grocery stores in a city of 8.5 million people would not lower food prices across the board, he said, but they could benefit residents who lived near them.
Nationwide, there are a few government-owned grocery stores, often in smaller towns that have lost their only supermarkets. Chicago recently opted against opening its own store, and a supermarket in the rural town of Baldwin, Fla., which received national attention when it opened in 2019, closed last year after struggling during the coronavirus pandemic.
Minimum Wage
At the beginning of 2025, the state raised New York City’s minimum wage to $16.50 per hour for most employees, with adjustments to keep pace with inflation starting in 2027.
If elected, Mr. Mamdani wants to nearly double the minimum wage to $30 per hour by 2030.
At the Thursday news conference, Ms. Hochul sidestepped questions about her appetite for the proposal. But a big increase seems unlikely since a recent push in the State Legislature to raise the minimum wage statewide to $21.25 has gotten little traction.
For his part, Mr. Mamdani has suggested a way to do raise the city’s wage without state approval, by having the City Council enact its own minimum wage law. But the Council has never done that before and it is not clear if it even has the power.
Mr. Parrott called Mr. Mamdani’s proposed increase ambitious but added that “the minimum wage has been lagging in New York in the last few years.”
“In 2019, almost no city in the country had a minimum wage higher than New York’s $15, but there are now several cities that are much higher than New York City,” he added.
The city of Los Angeles recently implemented a $30 minimum wage for workers in the tourism industry; Washington, D.C., has one of America’s highest minimum wages, at $17.50 per hour; and several communities in Washington State have a minimum wage above $20.
Matthew Haag writes for The Times about the intersection of real estate and politics in the New York region. He has been a journalist for two decades.
Benjamin Oreskes is a reporter covering New York State politics and government for The Times.
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