Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at NATO’s new defense spending target, deadly anti-government protests in Kenya, and the Israel-Iran conflict’s impact on oil prices.
The 5 Percent Target
NATO leaders approved a significant increase to the alliance’s minimum defense spending requirement on Wednesday, marking a major shift for Europe’s security strategy amid Russia’s war in Ukraine as well as a political win for U.S. President Donald Trump.
Under the policy, NATO members will increase their defense spending from 2 percent to 5 percent of GDP over the next 10 years, with 3.5 percent focused on core defense, such as troops and weapons, and 1.5 percent on broader measures, such as cybersecurity, infrastructure, and pipeline protection. If all 32 member states meet this goal, then an estimated extra $4.26 trillion will be added to NATO’s defense expenditures.
“It’s hard to overstate the transformational effect that this will have,” Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson told FP’s Situation Report on Wednesday. “The 5 percent pledge is indeed a historical landmark, and it creates possibilities for Europe to take a larger responsibility for its own security.”
“Now,” Jonson added, “what we need to do is transform economic clout into combat power.”
However, not all NATO nations are on board with the new requirement. Last week, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said that Madrid would not surpass the 2.1 percent benchmark; Spain is currently one of eight countries failing to meet the original 2 percent target. On Wednesday, NATO appeared to give Spain some wiggle room, writing in a short, five-point communiqué that “allies”—not “all allies”—had committed to the goal.
Madrid would like to thank NATO chief Mark Rutte and “all the allies for their respect for Spain’s sovereignty and their willingness to understand each other and reach an agreement,” Sánchez said on Wednesday.
Whereas many NATO powers appeared willing to appease Spain’s decision, though, the United States was not one of them. Trump spent less than 24 hours at The Hague for this week’s NATO summit in an intentional move that NATO members hoped would keep Trump’s attention and ensure that he didn’t undermine the alliance’s efforts at unity. But the U.S. president still managed to threaten one of its members.
“I think Spain is terrible, what they’ve done,” Trump said on Wednesday, adding that Madrid’s economy “could be blown right out of the water when something bad happens.” He threatened to punish Spain by forcing it to “pay twice as much” in a future trade deal between Washington and the European Union. It is unclear how he could do this, as the White House is negotiating with the entire EU, not individual countries.
“We can’t say we are going to spend more and then, at the heart of NATO, launch a trade war,” French President Emmanuel Macron warned, calling Trump’s comments “an aberration.” Paris has suggested that steep U.S. tariffs could damage trans-Atlantic trade and become a barrier to countries’ abilities to meet the 5 percent target.
Even so, the alliance was quick to place the spending target’s success on Trump, who led the charge to increase burden-sharing for Europe’s security. “You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done,” Rutte wrote to Trump in a text message ahead of the summit. “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.”
Today’s Most Read
- Strikes on Iran Show the Force, and Limits, of Airpower by Robert Farley
- Don’t Count on China Bailing Out Iran by Jesse Marks
- IR Scholars Worry About U.S. Conflict With Iran by Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, and Michael J. Tierney
What We’re Following
Anniversary protests. Thousands of protesters took to the streets across Kenya on Wednesday to commemorate the first anniversary of deadly anti-government protests. But they faced fierce backlash from state authorities, who appeared eager to avoid any future calls for President William Ruto’s resignation.
Last June, Kenyan civilians launched a weekslong protest against a controversial finance bill, which proposed raising $2.7 billion in taxes on key goods and services—such as bread, vehicles, and social health services—to help alleviate the country’s debt crisis. Ruto ultimately conceded to marchers’ demands and agreed not to sign the legislation, but young people continued to mobilize to call for Ruto’s resignation.
On Wednesday, Kenyan authorities ordered all TV and radio stations to stop broadcasting the demonstrations, arguing that live footage violates the country’s laws, and they threatened regulatory action against outlets that do not cease airing immediately. Local police also fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds. At least 16 people have been killed and 400 people injured thus far.
Strong demand. Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday as a fragile, U.S.-brokered cease-fire deal between Israel and Iran held for a second day. Brent crude futures rose 0.8 percent by mid-afternoon Wednesday, reaching $67.68 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude increased 0.9 percent to hit $64.92 a barrel. “While concerns regarding Middle Eastern supply have diminished for now, they have not entirely disappeared, and there remains a stronger demand for immediate supply,” ING analysts wrote in a client note seen by Reuters.
Following Israel’s initial strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure on June 13, oil prices jumped as much as 13 percent, as experts feared that the conflict could disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and destabilize the wider region. But oil prices largely shrugged off the United States’ attack on key Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, and they continued to fall as it became clear that Iran’s response was muted.
“EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday, a day before a truce deal between Israel and Iran went into effect.
Meanwhile, cautious optimism surrounds the conflict, as both Israel and Iran claim victory and Middle Eastern countries slowly return to normal operations. Trump on Wednesday said that the United States will hold talks with Iran next week, though he appeared to diminish the importance of securing a nuclear deal, which the White House has previously prioritized.
“I don’t care if I have an agreement or not,” Trump said, claiming that U.S. strikes last weekend destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities. According to an early assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, though, the U.S. attack did not destroy Iran’s core program and instead only set it back several months.
Domestic missile test. Japan’s military tested a short-range missile on Tuesday for the first time on Japanese soil. The exercise fired a Type 88 surface-to-ship missile at an unmanned boat roughly 24 miles off the southern coast of Hokkaido island. Tokyo claimed that the test was successful and said it plans to hold another similar exercise on Sunday.
Japanese forces usually conduct missile drills at bases in the United States or Australia, citing Japan’s limited space. However, such training sessions are costly and often restrict the number of personnel who can participate. As Tokyo is looking to make its military more self-sufficient in the face of growing Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, Japan is searching for other avenues to bolster its security position.
Such drills are “extremely important for us to maintain and improve the capability to defend islands and other areas, given the current severe security environment,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said. Among the threats concerning Tokyo are recent joint military exercises between China and Russia near Japan’s coastlines.
Odds and Ends
For more than $65 million a head, India, Poland, and Hungary launched astronauts into space on Wednesday for the first time in more than 40 years. The two-week mission used private company Axiom Space to send the individuals to the International Space Station. The crew—consisting of American astronaut Peggy Whitson, Indian Air Force pilot Shubhanshu Shukla, Hungarian mechanical engineer Tibor Kapu, and Polish radiation expert Slawosz Uznanski-Wisniewski—also brought dishes that represented their countries’ heritages. Because watching the moon circle the Earth is always better when you can snack on Indian curry and rice with mango nectar, spicy Hungarian paprika paste, and freeze-fried Polish pierogies while doing so.
The post NATO Approves Landmark Defense Spending Increase appeared first on Foreign Policy.
