Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.
The highlights this week: South Africa treads a fine diplomatic line after the United States strikes Iran, Nigeria faces a Boko Haram resurgence in its northeast, and Egypt imposes electricity rationing after Israel limits its natural gas exports.
South Africa Navigates U.S. Attack on Iran
South Africa has issued a notably guarded response to the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, urging “dialogue” and a “peaceful resolution” to the conflict.
Pretoria’s muted statement—in contrast with its outright condemnation of Israel’s strikes on Iran earlier this month—underscores the diplomatic challenges that it faces as it navigates an increasingly unpredictable administration in Washington. This balancing act may only become more complicated if an Israel-Iran cease-fire fails to hold.
In recent years, Pretoria has deepened its ties with Tehran. South Africa has allowed Iranian warships to dock in Cape Town and advocated for Iran’s membership in BRICS during the bloc’s 2023 summit in Johannesburg. In March, Nomvula Mokonyane, the first deputy secretary-general of the leading African National Congress (ANC) party, hosted the Iranian ambassador to South Africa at the party’s headquarters, saying that “we can’t hide our friends.”
This relationship has drawn U.S. President Donald Trump’s ire. In a Feb. 7 executive order cutting financial aid to South Africa, Trump cited—among other grievances—the country’s reinvigorated “relations with Iran to develop commercial, military, and nuclear arrangements.” (The ANC has consistently supported Iran’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.)
Meanwhile, South Africa’s relations with Israel have long been strained. Although the pair forged close ties in the apartheid era, Pretoria has staunchly supported the Palestinian cause since the end of white minority rule in South Africa. In 2023, it brought a case accusing Israel of genocide to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
That said, Pretoria is unlikely to provide Tehran with unalloyed support. “I don’t think it’s in anyone’s interests in South Africa for them to come out fully on the side of the Iranians and undermine the small efforts that have been done so far in trying to rebuild its relationship with the United States,” said Christopher Vandome, a senior research fellow at Chatham House.
Pretoria is seeking a favorable economic deal with Washington, which is one of its top trading partners. South Africa—the continent’s largest exporter to the United States—has long relied on Washington’s African Growth and Opportunity Act, a decades-old preferential trade arrangement that is set to expire in September. Around 125,000 jobs in the country’s car industry depend on exports to the United States.
The clock is ticking on Pretoria’s chances of appeasing Washington. On July 9, Trump’s planned 30 percent tariff on South African imports is set to come into effect.
Trump has also threatened to boycott the November G-20 summit in South Africa—the first time that it will be held on the continent. According to Vandome, South Africa’s priority is to deliver on the G-20 and ensure Trump’s attendance, “rather than trying to seek increased isolation by aligning with Iran.”
Pretoria has been hoping to strike a trade deal with Washington on the sidelines of the U.S.-Africa Business Summit in Angola, which concludes today, but major deals are unlikely with senior U.S. officials’ attention focused on the Middle East.
Still, despite economic pressure, South Africa is unlikely to fully capitulate to Trump, especially when it comes to dropping its genocide case against Israel at the ICJ. “Despite huge criticism of South African foreign policy within South Africa, this is one area where actually there has been support for the ANC government,” Vandome said.
Meanwhile, to counter the effects of a broader U.S. withdrawal from Africa, South Africa has bolstered ties with China and Europe. Ahead of the U.S.-Africa summit, China offered tariff-free trade to all African nations—apart from Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan’s sovereignty.
In March, the European Union announced a $5.1 billion investment into green energy and vaccine production in South Africa at a joint summit in Cape Town. The announcement came shortly after Washington cut funding to foreign aid, threatening vital HIV/AIDS research and treatment in South Africa.
“The EU and other partners, including the U.K., Canada, [and] Australia, will be trying to see where they can fill the gap on the U.S. retreat. They are conscious that they don’t want South Africa to overly rely on China,” Vandome said.
Ultimately, South Africa must navigate its shifting allegiances under a coalition government that includes the pro-business Democratic Alliance party. The challenge for the ANC now will be how it balances national economic interests alongside its historical nonalignment and efforts to project itself as a champion of the global south and an opponent of Western hegemony.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday, June 25: The U.S.-Africa Business Summit concludes in Luanda, Angola.
Friday, June 27: The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are slated to sign a provisional agreement to end fighting in eastern Congo, brokered by the United States.
The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Sudan.
Monday, June 30: Southern African Development Community ministers responsible for energy and water meet in Harare, Zimbabwe.
What We’re Watching
Egypt rations electricity. Egypt started to impose electricity rationing across the country last week following the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, as the conflict has disrupted regional energy supplies.
Israel halted its natural gas exports earlier this month due to the conflict, but since Thursday, it has started to supply small quantities to Egypt again. Israeli gas accounts for up to 60 percent of Egypt’s gas imports and around 20 percent of its total consumption.
Boko Haram resurgence. A female suicide bomber killed at least 10 people on Friday night in Nigeria’s northeast state of Borno. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but security sources suspect that it was carried out by Boko Haram.
A recent resurgence of Boko Haram attacks in the country’s northeast has prompted Babagana Zulum, the governor of Borno state, to appeal to the Nigerian military for help. In April, he warned that the state was “losing ground” to the extremist group’s comeback.
Nigeria is facing rising insecurity nationwide. Earlier this month, gunmen attacked a village in the central state of Benue while residents were asleep, burning homes and killing at least 150 people. President Bola Tinubu visited the state last Wednesday amid rising public anger over the security crisis.
Increased levels of insecurity have coincided with rising poverty and a cost-of-living crisis in Nigeria, exacerbated by Tinubu’s economic reforms. Although the economy is growing, the country’s wealth gap has widened significantly.
Foreign miners targeted. Last week, a Malian court placed Canadian firm Barrick Mining’s Loulo-Gounkoto gold mining complex under provisional state control for six months, escalating a protracted dispute between Mali’s junta-led government and Barrick, Africa’s largest gold producer, which the former accuses of tax evasion and unfair contracts.
Malian authorities want the firm to accept new legislation that would give the government a larger stake and royalties in mining activities. Meanwhile, Barrick has sought help from the World Bank’s arbitration tribunal to resolve the dispute.
Mali’s junta-led neighbors in the Sahel, Niger and Burkina Faso, have also said that they want to have greater control over their mineral wealth since cutting ties with former colonial power France. Mali began construction of a gold refinery last week in partnership with Russia’s Yadran Group.
And on Friday, Niger—the world’s seventh-largest producer of uranium—announced that it would nationalize its majority French-owned uranium company, Somair.
This Week in Culture
Vatican beatifies Congolese officer. The Vatican held a beatification ceremony in Rome last week for Floribèrt Bwana Chui Bin Kositi, a 26-year-old Congolese customs officer who was killed in 2007 after he refused a bribe that would have allowed rancid rice from Rwanda into the city of Goma in eastern Congo.
The late Pope Francis recognized Kositi as a martyr last year in a possible first step to him becoming Congo’s first saint. “Our country almost holds the gold medal for corruption among the countries of the world,” Goma Bishop Willy Ngumbi said. “So, if we could at least learn from this boy’s life that we must all fight corruption … I think that would be very important.”
FP’s Most Read This Week
- The Many Ways U.S. Involvement in the War on Iran Could Go Badly by Howard W. French
- Israel Can’t Be a Hegemon by Stephen M. Walt
- China Backs Iran in Fight Against Israel by James Palmer
What We’re Reading
Fraught aid in South Sudan. Humanitarian experts have sounded the alarm in recent months over for-profit companies led by former U.S. intelligence officers and military veterans delivering aid in Gaza, Sudan, and South Sudan.
In the New Humanitarian, Joshua Craze and Joseph Falzetta report that food drops coordinated by a private U.S. firm in the South Sudanese town of Nasir went to government personnel and soldiers rather than civilians, who had largely fled the area amid intense fighting.
Is Kenya arming the RSF? An investigation by Bellingcat and Kenya’s Daily Nation found that Kenyan-labeled munitions crates were inside a depot allegedly being used by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) amid Sudan’s civil war.
The Sudanese government accused Kenya of supporting the RSF after the group held a meeting in Nairobi in February, where it announced its plan to form a rival government. Kenya has consistently denied any involvement in Sudan’s conflict.
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