Europe built its post-Cold War prosperity on cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from China, and cheap security from the United States. As we know by now, that model no longer works.
As U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to reduce Washington’s role in European security, intelligence agencies are repeatedly telling us that Russia may be preparing to attack a NATO country by the end of this decade. Even as it continues to fight in Ukraine, Russia has lately been upgrading its military bases on the NATO frontier. Last year, Russia spent more on defense than all of Europe combined.
Against this backdrop, Europe’s longstanding intransigence on rearmament and military readiness is no longer just an embarrassment. It is an emergency.
At next week’s NATO summit, the allies will likely agree to increase their target for annual defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, with an additional 1.5 percent to be spent on infrastructure, cybersecurity, and other militarily relevant expenditures. Taken together, this will give Trump the win he sought when he demanded that the allies spend a minimum of 5 percent of their GDP on defense.
At face value, this increase could start to address some of Europe’s gaps in defense production and capabilities. The European allies must massively scale up their fragmented and underfunded defense industry. European militaries have an urgent need for traditional technologies like transport aircraft and long-range strike systems, and they must be retooled with new technologies like the drones, artificial intelligence systems, and space-based assets that have shaped the battlefield in Ukraine.
But promises are not enough. Last year—a full decade after NATO committed to spending at least 2 percent at my final summit as secretary general—only 23 of 32 allies met the threshold. Ten years from now, we must not look back at a European commitment to 3.5 percent as a hollow promise made just to mollify a volatile and transactional U.S. president.
Amid the inevitable odes to European solidarity and purpose in The Hague, I will be looking for clear and detailed plans: concrete spending schedules and lists of the new capabilities to be procured. Without them, NATO’s renewed resolve will count for little.
Dictators like Russian President Vladimir Putin respect only strength. Given the very real risk of being left alone by the United States, Europe must ensure that it is strong enough to deter Putin today—so that we do not need to fight him tomorrow.
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