The GOP’s narrow House majority could face new trouble as more Republican-held districts move toward Democrats with the midterm elections fast approaching, according to a new Fox News forecast.
The updated Fox News Power Rankings show Democrats favored in 212 districts, up from the previous forecast conducted by President Donald Trump’s network of choice. Republicans are favored in 206 districts, while 17 races remain toss-ups.
That leaves Democrats just six seats short of the 218 needed to control the House, Republican strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek, which added that control of the House will likely be determined by a small number of districts.
“Not a single Democratic-held seat sits in the toss-up column,” Klink said Tuesday. “Every one of these fights is on Republican turf — a real indicator of headwinds impacting the party in power.”
One of the notable changes involves Republican Rep. Max Miller’s Ohio district. Fox News shifted the seat from likely Republican to a toss-up following explosive allegations involving the MAGA-aligned lawmaker, which he has denied.
“Trump carried the Miller district by 11 points in 2024,” Klink told Newsweek. “A Republican who can’t hold an R+11 seat has a candidate problem, not a party problem,” he added. “The ratings agencies moved the race because of headlines, not because Ohio voters turned blue.”
Missouri’s 5th Congressional District also moved away from Republicans following a court ruling blocking the state’s Trump-backed congressional map from being used without voter approval.
Democrats’ prospects have also improved beyond the new Fox News forecast. Prediction markets have recently moved further in their direction, with traders giving the party an increasingly strong chance of winning control of the House in November, Newsweek reported.
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