In the final hours before Primary Day, the Democratic race for mayor of New York City appeared to be razor-tight, leaving the two leading candidates — Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani — in scramble mode to boost turnout on Tuesday.
A new poll released on Monday by Emerson College suggested the race was too close to call, with Mr. Cuomo drawing the most first-place votes but falling short of the 50 percent threshold required to be declared the winner under the city’s relatively new ranked-choice voting system.
The poll shows Mr. Mamdani pulling ahead in the eighth round, topping Mr. Cuomo by 3.6 percentage points — matching the poll’s margin of error. It is the first major survey that shows Mr. Mamdani winning, seemingly reflecting his momentum, especially among younger voters.
“It is essential that we turn out in record numbers in order to turn the page on Andrew Cuomo, his billionaire donors, and the politics of big money and small ideas,” Mr. Mamdani, a state assemblyman and democratic socialist, said on Monday.
Mr. Cuomo, the former governor who resigned in 2021 following a series of sexual harassment allegations that he denies, has led in polls for months, including one also released on Monday by Fix the City, a super PAC tied to Mr. Cuomo’s interests. His campaign called the Emerson poll an “outlier.”
“We will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as mayor,” Rich Azzopardi, a spokesman for Mr. Cuomo, said.
The contest has seemed to invigorate New Yorkers. Roughly 384,000 Democrats voted early, nearly twice as many people as voted during the same period four years ago.
Most veteran political experts agreed on Monday that the race was close, and that it would come down to who could turn out their supporters.
Former Mayor Bill de Blasio, a fierce critic of Mr. Cuomo who has not endorsed any of his challengers, said in an interview that he saw similarities between this primary and his come-from-behind primary victory in 2013. He said that the debates had played a factor, along with a cross-endorsement between Mr. Mamdani and Brad Lander, the left-leaning city comptroller who is running third in most polls.
“A grass-roots campaign, thoroughly outgunned in terms of money, has managed to make this a very close affair,” he said of Mr. Mamdani’s team.
Several of Mr. Cuomo’s allies declined requests for interviews. His team scrambled to counter the narrative that his campaign was on the ropes. The betting markets showed volatile swings over who might win, with Mr. Cuomo no longer a clear favorite. Howard Glaser, a former adviser to Mr. Cuomo, said that he had run a “grim and joyless campaign.”
Both candidates hit the campaign trail with vigor. Mr. Cuomo planned a rally with union members in the evening. Mr. Mamdani visited the Flushing neighborhood in Queens, with John Liu, a state senator who holds some influence among Asian American voters.
Mr. Mamdani highlighted his campaign rally on Sunday night with Letitia James, the state attorney general, who compared Mr. Mamdani to former President Barack Obama, arguing that he had “vision and passion for change.” Mr. Mamdani and Ms. James grasped hands at the rally with a slate of mayoral candidates supported by the left-leaning Working Families Party.
Several Democratic strategists referred to the race as a “jump ball” that could come down to the wire.
“You could go into different neighborhoods and come out of it convinced that one or the other was definitely going to win,” said Rebecca Katz, a political consultant who has advised Mr. de Blasio and Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.
Ms. Katz added that there were several factors that made the race unpredictable. It is only the second time ranked-choice voting has been used in a mayoral primary; New Yorkers have shifting voting patterns as they embrace early voting; and the city faces the prospect of stifling 100-degree temperatures on Tuesday.
The two leading candidates have markedly different field operations. Mr. Cuomo is relying on union members and paid volunteers to get supporters — who tend to be older and could be worried about the sweltering weather — to the polls. A super PAC supporting him has also blanketed the airwaves with millions of dollars in anti-Mamdani television ads.
Mr. Mamdani has a large army of canvassers who have been knocking on doors across the city. He has also sought to use the ranked-choice system, which allows voters to rank five candidates in order of preference, to his advantage.
Mr. Mamdani has campaigned with Mr. Lander, hoping that the cross-endorsement will send enough of Mr. Lander’s votes his way; the two were scheduled to appear together Monday on “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.”
Several candidates who are aligned with Mr. Mamdani also used their ad money to attack Mr. Cuomo. Mr. Lander, who received attention over being arrested by ICE agents last week, released a television commercial attacking Mr. Cuomo and drawing attention to the sexual harassment allegations against the former governor.
Michael Blake, a former state lawmaker from the Bronx who also made a cross-endorsement with Mr. Mamdani, used his recent influx of public matching funds to release a television advertisement that said clearly: “Do not rank Andrew Cuomo.” On Monday evening, he planned to hold a rally at Co-Op City in the Bronx, home to an important bloc of Black voters, who have been supportive of Mr. Cuomo in polls.
Zellnor Myrie, a state senator in the race, was spending more than $100,000 on radio ads targeting Black voters in the race’s final days. Rather than promoting Mr. Myrie’s campaign, the commercials aim to undermine Black support for Mr. Cuomo.
“Before you vote for mayor, take 60 seconds and think about what Andrew Cuomo actually did in 11 years as governor before he resigned in disgrace,” a narrator says.
Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting.
Emma G. Fitzsimmons is the City Hall bureau chief for The Times, covering Mayor Eric Adams and his administration.
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