American military and diplomatic outposts across the globe are on high alert after a U.S. bombing raid on Saturday struck three of Iran’s most sensitive nuclear facilities, prompting vows of retaliation from Tehran and raising fears of a widening regional war.
Already on Monday, Iran fired 14 ballistic missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, one of the largest U.S. installations in the Middle East and a critical hub for U.S. air operations across the region. The missiles, a mix of short- and medium-range weapons, were intercepted by Qatari defenses and no casualties were reported.
President Donald Trump dismissed Tehran’s attack as a “very weak response,” saying the U.S. had been warned by Iran in advance. “Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE,” he posted on Truth Social. Trump also suggested that Iran might now “proceed to Peace and Harmony” and said he would encourage Israel to do the same.
But even as both Tehran and Washington signal interest in avoiding an all-out war, fears remain that the conflict is far from over. Analysts warn that Iran, armed with a deep arsenal and a regional web of proxy forces, is still weighing its next moves—ones that could target global energy supplies, U.S. military installations, or even escalate its nuclear program.
Iran has threatened to choke off the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a quarter of the world’s oil supply flows, and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has warned of the potential for Iranian-backed cyber attacks and terrorism on American soil.
The rapid escalation marks a dangerous new phase in the widening conflict. The State Department has issued a series of warnings in recent days urging Americans abroad to exercise “increased caution” and ordering the departure of nonessential staff from diplomatic missions in Iraq and Lebanon. In Qatar, where the missiles were fired, embassy officials advised American citizens to shelter in place.
Here’s a look at how Iran could retaliate after the U.S. strikes on its nuclear program.
Targeting the Strait of Hormuz
While there have been no major disruptions to the global oil supply so far, many fear that Iran could retaliate in part by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor between Iran and Oman through which nearly 20% of the world’s traded oil passes.
The strait is a vital artery for global energy markets—and a vulnerability that Iran has long threatened to exploit. The Iranian Parliament on Sunday approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would likely send global oil prices skyrocketing, shaking energy markets, and putting pressure on Washington from allies and consumers alike.
“EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!,” Trump posted Monday on Truth Social.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday urged China to intervene to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, which can handle the world’s largest crude oil tankers.
Very few alternatives exist if the strait is closed, making it a critical choke point for oil shipments. Around 20 million barrels flowed through the strait in 2024.
Attacks on U.S. military bases
In addition to the strike on Al Udeid, Iran has indicated it could target other U.S. military installations across the region—many of them far closer than Israel and potentially more vulnerable to rapid missile or drone attacks.
Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, posted on X that Iran had a legitimate right to respond to U.S. attacks on its nuclear facilities and warned that “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.” Trump previously warned that Iranian retaliation against U.S. assets “will be met with even greater force than what was unleashed” in Saturday’s strikes.
The United States maintains tens of thousands of troops across the Middle East, including at permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. While these bases are outfitted with sophisticated air defense systems, Iran’s expanding arsenal of drones and short-range ballistic missiles could pose a threat.
Just before the explosions at Al Udeid, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian framed Monday’s missile strike as a calibrated response: “We neither initiated the war nor wanted it,” he wrote on X in Persian. “But we will not leave the aggression against the great Iran unanswered.”
In addition to potentially striking American military bases across the Middle East, Iran may also consider striking oil infrastructure in Gulf states allied with the United States.
American vessels in the Red sea
Another way Iran may retaliate is by calling on its regional partners to target U.S. naval and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, a major artery for global trade and energy shipments.
The Houthis, who are backed by Iran and control large parts of Yemen’s western coastline, have already shown their ability to strike vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea. Earlier this year, the Houthis launched dozens of missile and drone attacks against American ships and commercial tankers, prompting shipping routes to be temporarily shut down.
The Trump Administration reached a ceasefire with the Houthis in May, but the Houthis said at the time they would resume attacks in the Red Sea if the U.S. entered the war.
Asymmetric attacks
The U.S. intelligence community is also worried about the potential for asymmetric retaliation from Iran, which could involve cyberattacks on American infrastructure, terrorist plots against U.S. or allied targets overseas, or covert operations carried out through proxy groups.
The Department of Homeland Security on Sunday issued a bulletin warning of a “heightened threat environment” within the U.S. linked to Iranian actors. The warning said that Iranian-backed hackers “routinely target poorly secured U.S. networks and Internet-connected devices for disruptive cyber attacks” and that “low-level cyber attacks” are likely as a response to the American bombing.
DHS is also monitoring for signs of potential terrorist attacks orchestrated by Iranian operatives or their partners abroad. Iran has a long history of sponsoring or supporting bombings and assassinations far from its borders, and had plotted to assassinate Trump after he ordered the assassination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who led the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.
“Iran also has a long-standing commitment to target U.S. Government officials it views as responsible for the death of an Iranian military commander killed in January 2020,” the DHS bulletin warning reads. “The likelihood of violent extremists in the Homeland independently mobilizing to violence in response to the conflict would likely increase if Iranian leadership issued a religious ruling calling for retaliatory violence against targets in the Homeland. Multiple recent Homeland terrorist attacks have been motivated by anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiment, and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict could contribute to US-based individuals plotting additional attacks.”
—Brian Bennett contributed reporting
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