In the space of less than two weeks, Iranians have witnessed the two top adversaries of the Islamic Republic carry out , raising fear and uncertainty to a level not seen for decades.
As of Saturday, Iran’s Health Ministry estimated that at least 430 people have been killed in Israeli strikes since June 13, with over 3,500 injured. Millions of people have left their homes.
After the with a massive bombing mission targeting key nuclear enrichment sites, all eyes are now watching how the regime in Tehran will respond.
Both US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have teased the idea of as a potential consequence of the ongoing military campaign.
However, most experts agree that a change of cannot be accomplished by bombing campaigns, and would have to emerge from within.
As US and Israeli strikes increase pressure on Iran’s leadership from the outside, a plausible option for the regime would be to reach for very effective and long-standing on its own citizens to ward off any domestic threat to its grip on power.
Iran’s regime cracks down domestically
DW turned to Iranian social media to get an idea of what people are thinking. DW is banned from reporting on the ground or broadcasting in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Many social media users in Iran are concerned that if the Islamic Republic remains in power, the regime could take revenge on the Iranian people for its political and military humiliations.
Word on social media is spreading about a inside Iran under accusations of “supporting Israel.”
Executions related to alleged ties with Israel have also increased. On Sunday, June 22, the Iranian judiciary’s official news agency reported the execution of Majid Masibi, who was accused of “spying for Israel.”
Authorities claimed he had been in contact with Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency.
Just a week earlier, the Islamic Republic executed another individual on similar charges of “espionage for Israel.”
Many Iranians living abroad have taken to social media to express deep concern for their families in Iran.
Some have written that they are now seriously considering leaving Iran, or are considering sending their children to neighboring countries such as Turkey or Armenia in the coming days, especially if the conflict escalates further.
Domestic criticism of nuclear program
After the US attack on the , one Iranian user said he fears what the regime will do in response.
“The world was terrifying with the Islamic Republic in power. But if the regime survives these attacks, the world will become an even more terrifying place — far worse than before,” he said.
Many users expressed the view that US and Israeli military strikes alone cannot bring down the Islamic Republic. They argued that only a popular uprising within Iran, driven by the people themselves, can lead to the fall of the regime.
After the US attacks, the Iranian government tried to downplay the impact, while communicating to the public that it would respond decisively. The Islamic Republic’s nuclear program has also been a source of power and legitimacy domestically.
Some state-affiliated media outlets in Iran have published videos claiming that life near the Fordo nuclear facility remains normal and that residents are continuing with their daily routines. DW cannot independently verify the authenticity of these videos.
Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova from the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation told DW that at this time, it is very difficult to verify the extent of the damage to Fordo.
“We can see some damage from the satellite imagery, but do not know the real extent, and what it’s going to take,” she said.
Mukhatzhanova added that UN inspectors remain in Iran and are ready to resume their verification work “once it is safe.”
Iranian social media users willing to criticize the regime spoke of the enormous financial cost of the decades-long nuclear program, especially now as materiel and infrastructure are being destroyed.
Many commented that had the regime invested those resources in job creation or national development instead of military ambitions, Iran would not be facing a war today, and the country would likely enjoy a much stronger economic, social and political position.
As Iranians wait for what comes next, social media users said checkpoints have been established at the entrances of many cities across Iran to inspect citizens.
“They can’t confront American and Israeli warplanes in the sky, so they’ve set up checkpoints on the ground — for the people,” one social media user commented in response.
Reza Pahlavi, a prominent Iranian pro-democracy leader, posted on X that the strikes on the nuclear sites were “the result of the regime’s catastrophic pursuit of at the expense of the Iranian people.”
“Ali Khamenei and his crumbling terrorist regime have failed the nation. […] The only sure way to achieve peace is for this regime to now end.”
What have regime supporters said?
According to the Netherlands-based Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN), more than 80% of literate population did not support the Islamic Republic as of 2023.
However, regime supporters among the Iranian public remain very active and vocal. Along with public demonstrations against the US and Israeli attacks, many supporters have also taken to social media in recent days.
Mohsen Borhani, an Iran-based lawyer, posted on X that Trump’s strike on Iran’s nuclear sites “made a mockery of all principles of international law.”
Other regime supporters are calling for “revenge” strikes on US interests.
Robert Chatterjee, deputy editor of Zenith Magazine, which focuses on the Arab and Islamic world, told DW that Iran’s military options for responding to US attacks are quite limited.
“There are some strategic options, although they are rather short-term than mid- or long-term options,” he said.
“One option would be to activate a network of regional allies to attack US personnel or bases. I think that is quite unlikely, not least because first of all Iran’s not interested in drawing the US even more into this war,” he added.
Other regime supporters on social media argue that Iran now has the right to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, claiming that there is no longer any justification for remaining a party to the global agreement.
However, Masih Alinejad, an Iranian-American journalist and human rights activist, posted on X that it is clear the Fordo nuclear site “was never about peaceful energy.”
“It was built under a mountain to hide a nuclear program from the world, while the regime told its own people they couldn’t even afford clean water or shelter. Now, the same regime is at war, and still hasn’t built a single bomb shelter for its people. They protect uranium. They protect power. They never protect Iranians.”
Edited by: Keith Walker
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