Even before the summit kicks off in The Hague on Tuesday 24, one thing is clear: The alliance’s ambitious goals will place heavy demands on Germany. It’s true that Chancellor has announced that he will provide all the necessary financial resources to make the the strongest conventional army in Europe. However, NATO’s new goals are ambitious: The plan is for member states to spend 5% of their economic output on defense. Until now, it has been 2% — which is what Germany currently spends on defense.
It was US President who first proposed the target of 5%. He threatened Europe’s NATO allies, saying that if they continued paying as little as they had so far, the US would refuse to provide assistance. In fact, in 2024, the US alone covered two-thirds of the defense spending of all NATO member states.
In many European countries, Trump’s demand was met with skepticism, and many said 5% was far too high. In 2024, some countries were far away from even meeting the 2% target. A few days before the summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that the entire NATO alliance would meet the 2% target by 2025.
But this is only supposed to be the first step towards even higher spending. New guidelines of 5% are to be announced at the summit in The Hague. The German government also supports the figure proposed by Rutte: 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) is to be spent on defense and 1.5% on infrastructure that may also be relevant to defense. This could include railways, bridges or ports. The total of 5% is to be achieved by 2032.
Half of the federal budget for defense?
For Germany and its strong economy, that would be a gigantic sum, estimated at €225 billion ($258 billion) per year. Last year, the total federal budget was €476 billion.
Chancellor Merz has emphasized that the .
However not everyone in his coalition government is convinced. “We think it’s irrational to set a percentage of GDP for military spending,” wrote a group of left-wing SPD members in their manifesto on peacekeeping in Europe. They said there was, “no security policy justification” for this. Parts of the opposition also sharply criticized the idea.
In view of the threat posed by Russia, Bundeswehr experts see good reasons to invest more money in the armed forces, which have been neglected for decades. “It’s not about pleasing the Americans, nor is it about lining the pockets of the arms industry. It’s in Germany’s national interest to be capable of defending itself,” security expert Aylin Matle from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) told DW. She said that the federal government has a responsibility to explain why this is necessary. Nevertheless, she agreed that 5% of economic output is “an insane amount.”
What does this mean for the Bundeswehr?
In addition to finances, the NATO summit will also focus on military capabilities. Additional troops are needed in Europe, both as a show of strength to Russia and in response to President Trump’s announcement that he intends to reduce the US presence in Europe.
What does this mean for the German armed forces? Between 50,000 and 60,000 additional soldiers are needed, Defense Minister explained in Brussels at the beginning of June.
The NATO defense ministers first set the alliance’s new capability targets at their meeting in June. While the details are confidential, Pistorius has announced plans to form and fully equip large, new military units. “This will be a major undertaking,” he said. Under discussion are five to seven new brigades, each with 5,000 soldiers, tanks, artillery and associated logistics.
Compulsory military service?
How the German army plans to recruit tens of thousands of additional career soldiers in the coming years remains unclear for the time being. It currently has a force of around 182,000 soldiers and is actively recruiting new personnel. “We currently have good personnel numbers, good recruitment figures, and good applicant numbers. That is encouraging,” said a spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense at the beginning of June. In recent years, the number of soldiers has declined despite all recruitment efforts.
Conscription, which was suspended in Germany in 2011, could be an effective means of recruiting personnel. There are no plans to reinstate it for the time being. This was agreed upon by the government coalition partners. “We are creating a new, attractive military service that will initially be based on voluntary enlistment,” it says in the coalition agreement. The word “conscription” does not appear in it.
In view of NATO’s increased requirements, there are growing calls within the conservative coalition partners, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) to start preparing for the reintroduction of compulsory military service. But Chancellor Friedrich Merz is holding back. For the time being, the agreement in the coalition contract will remain in place. “We will have to look closely at whether attractiveness programs and voluntary service are sufficient. If voluntary service is not sufficient, then we will have to discuss additional steps very soon,” it says.
In this regard, Merz and his defense minister, Pistorius, are on the same page. Pistorius stresses that, “conscription is of no use to us at present because we lack enough barracks and training facilities. Therefore, these capacities must be expanded. Until then, voluntary service will remain in place.”
Possible withdrawal of US troops
Security expert Matle is skeptical that a voluntary military service plan could really work long-term. “It’ll be scrapped pretty quickly,” she predicted. Especially since the pressure on Germany could grow again if the US does really pull its troops out of Europe.
The Trump administration has already announced its intentions to do just that. More detailed information on this is not expected until after the NATO summit. Matlé suspects that the cards could then be reshuffled once again. “The Europeans, including Germany, would then be faced with the question of how to make up for this.” But she believes that even if this means that even more troops will be needed in Europe, it is “not very likely that Germany will be able to increase its troop numbers significantly in the next few years.”
This article was originally written in German.
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