The first day of the Atlantic hurricane season came and went on June 1 without a named storm. And then the first week. And the second. Now we are in the third week, and the National Hurricane Center says it does not expect any activity in the next few days.
That is both unusual, and not.
The “slow” start is unremarkable if you look at what meteorologists currently call “normal”: a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020. Over that span, on average, the first storm didn’t form until June 20.
But for many of the most recent years — 18 times since 2005 — storms developed before this point in the year. For the people who make their homes in the Caribbean or along the United States coastlines and watch the rhythms of a hurricane season closely, this has been an unusual dry spell.
Other notable statistics over the last 20 years:
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In 10 years, the first named storm formed before June 1.
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In only two years — now three, including this year — the first named storm arrived after June 20.
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The latest first storm formed on Aug. 11, 2009.
When does a storm get a name?
When a tropical cyclone develops but its sustained wind speeds are 38 miles per hour or less, it’s called a tropical depression. When they reach 39 m.p.h., it becomes a tropical storm and is given a name. It keeps that name if it becomes a hurricane (sustained winds at 74 m.p.h. or greater) or if it dissipates. Some storms form and get a name but never approach land before weakening. Others become so destructive at landfall that their names are retired afterward.
Does it matter when the first storm forms?
Not necessarily. A lack of activity in May and June doesn’t mean it won’t end up a busy season. Many experts don’t expect significant storms until mid-August. Strong early storms, like Hurricane Beryl last year, are rare.
Most of the storms that cause significant damage in the United States occur during August, September and October.
Were the forecasts for an above-average year wrong?
No. Well, maybe.
This spring, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast an above-average season. If nothing forms between now and August, the experts are likely to revise — and reduce — the number of storms they expect to see this year.
If June remains quiet, but then July isn’t, forecasters will probably continue to expect an above-average year, despite the slow start.
The Pacific, meanwhile, has been active.
The Eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began on May 15, has been off to a busy start. Storms that form off the west coast of North America typically get started before their counterparts in the Atlantic, and there have been five already this year: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila and Erick. Seasons in both oceans run through Nov. 30.
Erin McCann is the senior editor for The Times’s weather team. She is based in San Francisco.
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times who forecasts and covers extreme weather.
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