LONDON — Who can stop the Iran war?
With Donald Trump poised to order a bombing raid on Iran’s subterranean nuclear facilities — and Israel urging him on — it seems unlikely that the answer could be three European ministers and an Estonian politician with the title of EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy.
But the foreign ministers of Germany, France and the U.K. — with Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian leader in question — are expected to join emergency talks in Geneva with representatives of Iran on Friday anyway.
The scramble is part of a frantic effort by European governments to find a diplomatic way out of the week-long war between Israel and Iran, before America turns it into something they fear could become far bigger, and much worse.
On Thursday Trump and his team gave European officials reasons to hope that their efforts may not be futile. The White House announced Trump will decide within the next two weeks whether to order U.S. military action as he believes “there’s a substantial chance of negotiations.”
That longer timeframe for Trump to make his decision appears to open the door to a renewed diplomatic push, giving Friday’s talks in Switzerland potentially much more weight.
Alongside the EU’s Kallas, the foreign ministers of Germany and France are expected to attend, with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy flying straight to Geneva from talks with U.S. counterpart Marco Rubio in Washington. Representing Iran will be Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The question is whether the Europeans can make meaningful progress.
Historic weakness
The Iran crisis vividly demonstrates how much Trump has neutered European geopolitical influence over the past decade, even in areas where its interests might align with those of America.
Back in 2015, these same European powers — the so-called E3 — played a major part in striking the last Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). But that was under Barack Obama’s administration, and Trump took against the arrangement, pulling America out of it in 2018.
Ever since, Europe has struggled to get its voice heard on questions relating to Iran.
EU powers (and the U.K., too) have likewise failed to hold much sway over Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government in Israel, especially since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023.
European officials privately hope to give Trump the opportunity to take an off-ramp from his current path toward military action. In recent days, the U.S. president has threatened to kill the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and announced he’s weighing up whether to use bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iran’s underground uranium enrichment plants.
“There is something that is holding Trump back,” one European diplomat said, speaking anonymously, like others, to discuss highly sensitive matters. Trump said the U.S. is ready to join Israel’s military strikes but “nothing is happening — there’s an opportunity here.” The diplomat added: “We must not underestimate how much Trump hates war.”
John Sawers, former head of Britain’s foreign intelligence agency, MI6, said Trump would have preferred Israel not to start a direct war with Iran at all. “There was an opportunity here which President Trump didn’t really want them to take,” Sawers told a conference hosted by the Chatham House think tank in London.
“It was only a week ago that he was appealing to Israel to allow more time for his negotiations, but Netanyahu brushed that aside, and Trump has basically fallen in line with the Israeli approach.” Sawers said that now Israel had put the world in the position of enraging Iran, it would be better for the U.S. to step in to finish the job: “Get on with it and get it over with.”
Messaging America
Other well-connected officials and diplomats in the E3 don’t share that view, fearing the conflict will spread into a full-scale regional war if the U.S. becomes directly involved.
The aim of resuming talks with Iran is to get a guarantee that Tehran will only use its nuclear program for civilian purposes, according to one official from an E3 country. “That is exactly where we were with the negotiations … which have been thrown off track because of Israeli activity,” the official said.
However, the official predicted that any talks that take place on Friday would be unlikely to come to a definitive conclusion, despite French President Emmanuel Macron attempting to prove himself as the “peacemaker.”
The Geneva meeting, assuming it goes ahead in this volatile context, will serve more as a communications exercise, the person said. “Any meeting will be to get a message from the Iranians to the Americans [about] their intentions regarding their nuclear program,” the person said.
The truth is, it’s not Iran that needs convincing to stop the war right now, it’s Trump. He has indicated in recent days that he is close to agreeing to Netanyahu’s request to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, even if not yet endorsing calls to enforce regime change in Tehran.
At a press conference on Thursday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said the Iranians had been “relatively clear” in their willingness to resume talks, “including with the United States,” if there is a ceasefire.
“We stand ready, as we have done in recent months and years, to present a formula guaranteeing the security interests of Israel, the region and Europe, that addresses at the same time Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile program, but also its regional destabilization activities,” Barrot said.
The French clearly see an opportunity to serve as peacemakers between Iran and the U.S.
But Europeans who want peace are in a direct conflict with Israel, which wants to convince Trump to bomb Iran.
An Israeli official set out what they want from European engagement with Iran in Geneva: “We expect a clear and forceful message to the Iranians — dismantle nuclear program in totality, dismantle surface-to-surface missile capabilities and stop financing proxies and terror.”
Britain’s Lammy flew to Washington for talks Thursday with Secretary of State Rubio, potentially helping to bring that European perspective directly to the heart of decision-making in D.C.
Rubio is serving two roles, as America’s top diplomat but also Trump’s acting national security adviser, after the president ousted Mike Waltz, and it’s not clear even his advice will be decisive when it comes to what the president will do.
The British-American relationship is more complex than the French, too, with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer trying to balance his instinctive desire to stay close to the U.S. — including potentially offering military support for military action — and to halt the conflict.
For those who want to avert an escalation, there is another consideration. Trump has his own domestic reasons for keeping America out of the war.
While some more traditional Republicans are urging Trump to intervene, others in his MAGA movement oppose foreign military exploits and do not see the reason for deploying American assets in this case. He also promised not to take America into more foreign wars and to be a peacemaker president.
The prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough in Geneva still appear slim, though there is now at least a window of time for potentially meaningful talks. It would be ironic if the European alliance Trump did so much to weaken inadvertently came to the aid of MAGA’s anti-war faction and gave him an excuse not to drop bombs on Iran.
Clea Caulcutt reported from Paris. Nette Nöstlinger reported from Berlin. Gabriel Gavin and Nicholas Vinocur in Brussels, Josh Berlinger in Paris and Esther Webber in London also contributed to this report.
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