The pace of political violence has so quickly accelerated in the United States that the country is poised to field a widening group of 2028 contenders who have experienced it in some form.
To date, at least a half-dozen public officials who may run for president in 2028 have either personally faced political violence, lost friends in such plots or had to manage political unrest in their states.
Foisted onto the national stage by these incidents, these politicians have given the public a glimpse of how they conduct themselves in a crisis, including their ability to combat false messaging that often proliferates over social media and whether they have the capability to lead without being dragged into petty political skirmishes.
The assassination over the weekend of Melissa Hortman, the Democratic leader of the Minnesota state House, and her husband was the latest episode of violence that captured national attention. Another Democratic state legislator and his wife were also shot multiple times and are recovering.
It thrust Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee and potential 2028 White House hopeful, into the national spotlight, where he directed the messaging behind a major investigation and manhunt while confronting his own grief at losing “the dearest of friends.”
The Minnesota tragedy came as California Gov. Gavin Newsom was locked in a cross-country confrontation with the White House over its use of federal law enforcement amid protests over immigration arrests in the state.
Just two months ago in Pennsylvania, an attacker firebombed Gov. Josh Shapiro’s residence because of his position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Shapiro had already dealt with the fallout from political violence after his state handled the attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Butler last July; the shooter also killed a man at Trump’s campaign rally that day.
That in turn impacted JD Vance, who had met with Trump that morning to discuss joining the ticket as his vice presidential running mate. Trump announced Vance as his pick less than 48 hours after the shooting — a move that positioned Vance, then 39, as a young prospective heir to the MAGA movement who may be eyeing the 2028 GOP presidential nomination. Trump also faced a second assassination attempt while they were running mates.
And in 2020, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, another Democrat on the shortlist of 2028 contenders, was the subject of a kidnapping plot.
Other Democrats have had to deal with losing a close friend or colleague to the violence.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who ran in 2020 and may also be a 2028 hopeful, told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday that she had dined with Hortman just hours before the assassination.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker also had an interaction with Hortman on Friday, the night he delivered an address at the Minnesota Democratic Party’s annual dinner. On Monday, Pritzker was updating local news media of what he said was a “hodgepodge” of lists that included 600 names of officials found among the belongings of Vince Boelter, the man charged in the killing of Hortman and her husband. Pritzker said he was not among those on any target list.
A volatile political climate often immersed in misinformation and partisan vitriol has contributed to the spate of attacks on public office holders, political observers say. Leaders need to show in these times that they can help heal a community, turn down the temperature and even reach across the aisle.
“The country has made it very clear it’s sick of how divisive things are, and I think the country is sick of the violence and the example it’s showing children and the pain it’s causing people,” said Stephanie Grisham, a former Trump press secretary who resigned after the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the U.S. Capitol. “Anybody running for office in the future would be foolish not to consider that.”
Grisham, who endorsed then-Vice President Kamala Harris last year, added of Walz: “His message was absolutely spot on. It was: we should be able to have a conversation with our neighbors.”
She said the repudiation of such acts “should be loud, and it should be Republicans and Democrats who can’t stand each other, standing side by side, to say, ‘Yes, we disagree vehemently, but that doesn’t give anyone the right to hurt a human being.’”
Pete Giangreco, a Democratic strategist who advised Klobuchar in her 2020 presidential campaign, pointed to Saturday’s “No Kings” protests across the country as a model for constructive dissent.
“It’s a call to get back to a place where we could have our differences, but do it in a civil way in elections that are free and open for everybody who is a citizen,” he said of the protests that drew hundreds of thousands but remained peaceful.
“I think the more partisan Democrats get about the messaging as it relates to the political violence, the less helpful it is both to the country as a whole, but also to the prospects of winning in 2028,” Giangreco said.
For Newsom, the message he sent to his constituents was to demonstrate peacefully. And to the wider national audience, both the governor and his office deluged information spaces, either to correct false narratives or combat negative messaging coming from the White House.
“This is about all of us. This is about you. California may be first, but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next. Democracy is next,” Newsom said in a major address he framed as the president sending Marines to his state to try to provoke violent clashes. “Democracy is under assault before our eyes. This moment we have feared has arrived.”
Trump officials boasted about images coming from California, saying they were “happy to have this fight,” and Trump gave the green light for law enforcement to take aggressive action. “If they spit, we will hit,” he said.
“It is really tragic to be in a situation where it is the right thing to do in these situations, to basically make sure that Republicans aren’t able to step in there and set a false narrative,” said Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, a pro-Democratic group.
He said one of the more dangerous contributions to an era of political violence in recent years came in January, when Trump pardoned or offered commutations to those involved in the Capitol attack. That included individuals convicted — and some who even pleaded guilty to — attacking law enforcement officers.
“These groups have a sense that they are effectively above the law because the president will pardon them for their crimes,” Dennis said. “And I believe that is done as an intimidation technique.”
Trump likewise recently brought up the prospect of pardoning those convicted in the plot targeting Whitmer, saying he would “take a look at” pardoning the men involved and said the trial “looked to me like somewhat of a railroad job.” Whitmer said she was disappointed with Trump’s remarks.
Prosecutors said that two men convicted in the kidnapping scheme wanted to grab Whitmer and hang her.
“Don’t forget the most important thing — these defendants were outside a woman’s house in the middle of the night with night vision goggles and guns and a plan to kidnap her. And they made a bomb. That’s real enough, isn’t it?” a federal prosecutor said in closing arguments.
“When the president was shot at in Pennsylvania, I was one of the first people on either side of the aisle to condemn it,” Whitmer said last month at the Mackinac Policy Conference in Michigan. “We have to condemn political violence, no matter where it comes from, no matter who it’s aimed at. It does a disservice to everyone if we do anything short of that.”
Another potential Republican 2028 candidate touched by violence is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who had been so shaken by the Capitol attack by Trump supporters that he deemed it “one of the saddest days in our history” and a “national embarrassment.”
“With our increasingly heated rhetoric and our wild conspiracies, our politics has been playing with fire for a long, long time,” Rubio said at the time.
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn. — who is also discussed as a 2028 candidate — and Klobuchar were also present during the violent assault on the Capitol that day.
The toxicity and divisiveness that have exploded in America over the last decade have led to a steady rise in threats to members of Congress. Last year, the Capitol Police saw an 18% increase to their threat assessment section load, investigating 9,474 concerning statements and direct threats against members of Congress, their families or their staff members. In 2021, threats surpassed that number after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, when police investigated 9,625 threats. On Monday, a 25-year-old Georgia man was arraigned on federal charges of making violent threats against Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Deb Fischer, R-Neb., the Justice Department said.
“When someone attacks an individual — like this weekend, like Gov. Shapiro, like Steve Scalise several years ago — that is an attack not just on a political ideology, it is an attack on public service,” said former Sen. Doug Jones, D-Ala., who is now a fellow with the Center for American Progress. “Everyone can relate to that. Everyone can feel for that. That’s why I think it’s more important than ever that people be very careful about the message.”
Jones, who prosecuted the 1963 church bombing in Birmingham, Alabama, in which four young girls of the Black church were killed by members of the Ku Klux Klan, said he sees parallels to today’s volatile climate and the civil rights era. Politicians need to remember that violence begets violence, Jones warned, so even condoning small acts of violence can have a tragic impact.
“That bombing took place in part because of the rhetoric of an Alabama governor and a racist police commissioner that was giving a permission structure to a group of folks that was basically: ‘Do what you want to because we’re not going to really look at it,’ I am absolutely convinced of that,” Jones said.
After facing his own interactions with law enforcement, Shapiro posted a message on social media Saturday upon hearing of the politically motivated shootings in Minnesota.
“Leaders across our country must speak and act with the moral clarity this moment demands,” Shapiro tweeted. “This is unacceptable — we all have a responsibility to stand up and work to defeat the political violence that is tearing through our country. America is better than this.”
Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist in Florida who works with a bipartisan group that recruits candidates for the state Legislature, said the threats against public officials could have a paralyzing effect.
“One of the unspoken tragedies of this is it’s just going to make that much harder for good people to be willing to raise their hand and enter public service,” he said.
Schale said that part of Joe Biden’s success in 2020 was as an antidote to chaos and that a similar dynamic could play out in 2028. “Candidates who can speak to these fears and then speak in a unifying fashion, I think will probably do well,” he said. “But more importantly, I just think all of us who have a platform at any level have to take more responsibility for what we say and how we contribute to it.”
For Vance, last year’s failed assassination attempts on Trump provided Republicans with a rallying cry: “Fight! Fight! Fight!” — the words Trump defiantly offered after his ear was bloodied in Butler. Vance spoke about his reaction to the Butler attempt during an interview last fall with podcast host Joe Rogan. He recalled that he was playing mini-golf with his young children in Ohio at the time and that his “fight or flight” instincts went into effect: He went home to “load all my guns, and basically stand like a sentry at our front door.”
After the Minnesota shootings, Vance called Walz, his opponent in last year’s vice presidential debate, to express condolences, a source familiar with the call told NBC News.
Trump condemned the Minnesota slayings on his social media platform.
“Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America,” Trump wrote. “God Bless the great people of Minnesota, a truly great place!”
However, he refused to call Walz after the Saturday slayings, shootings of two others and subsequent manhunt. Instead, he insulted the governor.
“Why would I call him? I could call and say, ‘Hi, how you doing?’ The guy doesn’t have a clue,” Trump said of Walz. “He’s a mess. So I could be nice and call, but why waste time?”
Walz made clear, over X, who did reach out to offer support.
“My thanks to Premier Doug Ford of Ontario who called to express his condolences to the Hortman family and the people of Minnesota,” he said.” In times of tragedy, I’m heartened when people of different views and even different nations can rally together around our shared humanity.”
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